ARC Caribbean 1500 - 11/14 11z - Forecast Update #14

Prepared: November 14 10:32z
FM: Weather Routing Inc. (WRI)

Synopsis: Good morning. A trough of low pressure now extends from e'rn
Hispaniola NE'ward to 24N/55W, and this will dissipate on the 15th. A ridge of
high pressure extends from 23N/70W N'ward to 30N, and this will shift E'ward,
extending from 22N/65W NE'ward to 25N/60W on the 16th. A cold front will move
e'ward and extend from 30N/67W SW'ward to the s'rn Bahamas by the evening of
the 16th.

Numerous squalls have developed along a trough along 81W from 17N s'ward to 13N
and are slowly move nw'ward. The squalls remain disorganized but slow tropical
development is possible over the W'rn Caribbean Sea as these squalls will be
slow to move over the next 2 days. This area will be monitored closely. This
system is not a threat to the e'rn Caribbean Sea.

Conclusion: Highest NE-E winds north of 26N in Grid FF will spread s'ward by
this evening before diminishing from north to south by tomorrow morning. The
highest winds will be confined to the s'rn most regions of Grid FF tomorrow
night through the 16th before easing there overnight the 16th. Highest NE-E
winds will be north of 21-30N in Grid II today. Squalls that develop could
produce locally higher winds/swells in Grid II. This will gradually ease
tomorrow as the trough over the region weakens through the 16th. The highest
winds will remain in the n'rn most regions of Grid II through the 16th.

A north to south current ranging from 0.5-1.5kts extends from 23-30N s'ward to
21-18N and from 64-36W to 64-00W. A south to north current ranging between
1-2kts can be found between 24-24N to 21-24N and from 66-18W to 65-10W.

FF FORECAST:
14/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS NE-E(45 - 90) 10-16 GUSTS 18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS
N-NE 4-7FT (5SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS
FROM W @ 0.2KTS.
15/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 09-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE
4-7FT (5SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM NNW @ 0.5KTS.
15/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 08-14KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE
3-6FT (5SEC). SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM NW @ 0.2KTS.
16/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 07-14 GUSTS 16KTS. SEAS 2-3
SWELLS NNE-ENE 3-5FT (7SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS. CURRENTS FROM WNW
@ 0.5KTS.
16/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS ESE-SSE(113 - 158) 09-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E
3-5FT (7SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS. CURRENTS FROM NNW @ 0.3KTS.
17/00 GMT(T + 60): WINDS SE-S(135 - 180) 10-19KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE
3-6FT (8SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM WNW @
0.5KTS.

II FORECAST:
14/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-17 GUSTS 20KTS. SEAS 2-3
SWELLS ENE-ESE 3-6FT (4SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*.
CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.9KTS.
15/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NE-E(45 - 90) 13-20 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS
NE-E 4-6FT (5SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.8KTS.
15/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 11-16 GUSTS 18KTS. SEAS 2-3
SWELLS NE-E 4-6FT (5SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS
FROM NE @ 0.8KTS.
16/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS E-SE(90 - 135) 08-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE
3-6FT (7SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @
0.6KTS.
16/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS E-SE(90 - 135) 09-14KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE
3-5FT (7SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE
@ 0.8KTS.
17/00 GMT(T + 60): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 07-13KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS
ENE-ESE 3-5FT (7SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM
NE @ 0.7KTS.
* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS