ARC Caribbean 1500 - 11/07 11z - Forecast Update #7
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Prepared: November 07 11:38z FM: Weather Routing Inc. (WRI)
Synopsis: High pressure over the E'rn Great Lakes with a ridge along the U.S. East Coast e'ward to adjacent waters to 70W will move s'ward over W'rn North Carolina on the morning of the 08th then move se'ward to near 29N/73W on the morning of the 09th. The high will move e'ward to near 27N/59W on the morning of 10th. The ridge will remain stationary through the 08th, then shift se'ward and extend along 27N from 73W e'ward to 55W by overnight the 09th. The ridge will shift e'ward and extend from 65W e'ward 50W on the 11th.
A strong low near 38N/66W will move se'ward and strengthen into a gale near 36N/65W tomorrow afternoon. The gale will drift e'ward to near 35N/61W by evening of the 08th before accelerating to the northeast on the 09th. Low pressure will develop over the e'rn Gulf of Mexico evening of the 09th and track north of the Bahamas by the morning of the 10th. The low will gradually strengthen while moving ne'ward to near 31N/84W by the morning of the 11th.
Conclusions: The latest current analysis indicates the center of a NE to SW flowing current associated with the warm eddy extending from 35-00N/72-30W to 33-00N/73-45W, with speeds up to 1.5 kts. South of there, the currents outside of the Gulf Stream will tend to become much more variable/chaotic in direction and overall weaker. For the next 24 hours, winds in Grid AA will tend highest in the E'rn Half of the Grid and for Grid DD will tend highest in the N'rn portions of the grid. The below forecast for BB addresses average conditions for the W'rn Half of the Grid; gale force sustained winds, higher gusts and swells as high as 18-20 ft will occur in the E'rn Half of Grid BB through tomorrow evening. Winds will steadily ease for all grids into the 09th, with the lightest airs occurring in Grid JJ, GG and the S'rn halves of DD and EE. Winds will gradually re-freshen from north to south for Grids AA,BB, DD and EE from the 09th/12Z through 10th/12Z.
AA FORECAST: 07/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 19-27 GUSTS 33KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NNE-ENE BUILD 7-12FT (9SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 2.4KTS. 08/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 17-25 GUSTS 31KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NNE-ENE BUILD 8-13FT (13SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 2.1KTS. 08/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 12-20 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE BUILD 8-13FT (13SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 2.1KTS. 09/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS WNW-NNW(293 - 338) 07-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NE-E BUILD 7-11FT (13SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 2.1KTS. 09/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 10-18 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E BUILD 6-10FT (13SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 1.7KTS.
BB FORECAST: 07/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS NW-N(315 - 0) 21-30 GUSTS 37KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 8-13FT (9SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.3KTS. 08/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS WNW-NNW(293 - 338) 22-31 GUSTS 37KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 10-15FT (12SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.6KTS. 08/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS WNW-NNW(293 - 338) 17-26 GUSTS 33KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 11-16FT (12SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.5KTS. 09/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS NW-N(315 - 0) 11-20 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 9-14FT (12SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS. 09/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS NW-W-SW(315 - 225) 08-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 7-11FT (12SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SE @ 0.5KTS.
DD FORECAST: 07/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 14-22 GUSTS 26KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 5-9FT (8SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.4KTS. 08/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 14-21 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 7-12FT (10SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.2KTS. 08/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 08-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 8-12FT (13SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NNE @ 0.2KTS. 09/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS N-NW-W(0 - 270) 06-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE BUILD 8-12FT (13SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM WNW @ 0.1KTS. 09/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS W-SW(270 - 225) 07-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 7-10FT (12SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM W @ 0.2KTS.
EE FORECAST: 07/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 14-22 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 6-10FT (9SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.2KTS. 08/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 13-21 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 7-11FT (12SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.1KTS. 08/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS NW-N(315 - 0) 10-18 GUSTS 21KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 8-12FT (13SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.2KTS. 09/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 07-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 8-12FT (13SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSE / WEAKKTS. 09/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS NW-N(315 - 0) 05-10KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 8-11FT (13SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.1KTS.
GG FORECAST: 07/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 16-24 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NNE-ENE 6-9FT (9SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM N / WEAKKTS. 08/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 15-22 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 6-9FT (9SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM N @ 0.1KTS. 08/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 13-20KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 7-10FT (10SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM WNW @ 0.1KTS. 09/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS NE-E(45 - 90) 10-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 7-10FT (13SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM NW @ 0.2KTS. 09/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 05-13KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 6-9FT (14SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM WSW @ 0.5KTS.
JJ FORECAST: 07/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 15-23KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NE-E 5-8FT (8SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.7KTS. 08/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 13-21KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-8FT (9SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 0.5KTS. 08/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 07-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 6-9FT (11SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM S @ 0.7KTS. 09/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS NE-NW-W(45 - 270) 04-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-ENE 7-10FT (13SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SW @ 1KTS. 09/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 09-18KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NE-E 6-9FT (13SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 1.1KTS. * WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS
Best Regards, Weather Routing Inc. (WRI)
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