ARC Caribbean 1500 11/05 10z - Forecast Update #5
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Prepared: November 05 10:48z FM: Weather Routing Inc. (WRI)
Synopsis: A cold front extending from just north of Bermuda SW'ward to Central Florida will continue se'ward and extend from 30N/64W SW'ward to the N'rn Bahamas tomorrow morning. High pressure over the W'rn Ohio Valley with a ridge e'ward to the cold front will move ne'ward over the NE'rn U.S. on the morning of the 07th. The ridge will build e'ward offshore the U.S. East Coast to approximately 67W on the morning of the 07th. The high will shift s'ward over the Carolinas while the ridge remains nearly stationary through the 08th.
Low pressure will move se'ward over the E'rn Gulf of Maine tonight and reach 38N/65W by tomorrow afternoon. The low will drift se'ward and strengthen into a gale near 37N/63W by the morning of the 07th, then meander se'ward to near 36N/60W by evening of the 08th. A cold front will move se'ward from the low near 38N/65W SW'ward to 34N/70W by tomorrow afternoon, then track se'ward and extend from 35N/63W SW'ward to near 25N/66W by evening of the 07th. This cold front will continue e'ward through the 08th.
Conclusions: Departing midday today allows for stronger NE'ly winds and larger swells over the Gulf Stream east of North Carolina to ease and veer to NW-N'ly through tomorrow. For best handling of the Gulf Stream current and to best take advantage of following currents in an eddy farther to the southeast, suggest RL from the Chesapeake Exit to 35-00N/74-00W, then RL - 32-30N/72-30W. Winds will tend highest over the E'rn half of Grid AA from today through the 07th. NE'ly swells will build above 8 ft by late tomorrow night over the E'rn half of Grid AA and will continue to build into the 07th.
For Grid BB, NW-N'ly winds will rapidly increase from north to south from tomorrow afternoon through the morning of the 07th. N-NE'ly swells will become large due to proximity of the gale on the 07th. Swells will tend highest over the N'rn and E'rn half of Grid BB on the 07th and 08th - to avoid swells near/above 12 ft, it is best to transit through the SW'rn portion of Grid BB. A similar increase in NW'ly conditions can be expected for Grid CC late 07th into the 08th. The below forecast for Grid DD is focused on the N'rn half of the grid, where NE'ly breezes will be more consistent during the next 3 days.
AA FORECAST: 05/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 12-19 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 4-7FT (2SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SW @ 2.6KTS. 06/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NW-N(315 - 0) 11-18 GUSTS 21KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E/MIXED/N 3-6FT (2SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 2.5KTS. 06/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS NW-N(315 - 0) 13-20 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 4-7FT (2SEC). SKIES CLEAR. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 2.5KTS. 07/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 15-23 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 5-9FT (2SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 2.4KTS. 07/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 17-24 GUSTS 30KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE 7-10FT (2SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM SSW @ 2.3KTS.
BB FORECAST: 05/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 17-24 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 8-12FT (4SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.7KTS. 06/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 14-22 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE 6-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.4KTS. 06/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 11-18 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 4-7FT (5SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ESE @ 0.5KTS. 07/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS NW-N(315 - 0) 15-22 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE BUILD 5-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.3KTS. 07/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS NW-N(315 - 0) 19-26 GUSTS 32KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE BUILD 8-13FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.3KTS.
CC FORECAST: 05/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS SW-W-NW(225 - 315) 12-19 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NE-E/MIXED/N BUILD 4-8FT (4SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM WNW @ 0.1KTS. 06/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NW-N-NE(315 - 45) 15-23 GUSTS 30KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE 6-9FT (4SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.1KTS. 06/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 14-22 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-9FT (4SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM ENE @ 0.1KTS. 07/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 12-19 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-8FT (6SEC). SKIES CLEAR. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM E @ 0.2KTS. 07/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS WNW-NNW(293 - 338) 15-23 GUSTS 30KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NW-N 6-9FT (6SEC). SKIES CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NNW @ 0.3KTS.
DD FORECAST: 05/12 GMT(T + 0): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 18-25 GUSTS 29KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE 8-11FT (4SEC). SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 1.2KTS. 06/00 GMT(T + 12): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 15-22 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 7-10FT (5SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.7KTS. 06/12 GMT(T + 24): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 12-20 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-8FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.8KTS. 07/00 GMT(T + 36): WINDS NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 13-22 GUSTS 26KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-8FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.6KTS. 07/12 GMT(T + 48): WINDS N-NE(0 - 45) 15-23 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS/SQUALLS*. CURRENTS FROM NE @ 0.6KTS. * WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS
Best Regards, Weather Routing Inc. (WRI)
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