Bermuda to Portsmouth WX - 20 May

Good morning.

A weak front is stalled from Georgia E and then NE to a low N of Bermuda. Will drift S thru tonight and dissipate to the N of Bahamas 21/05.

Broad ridging extends from one high across the Carolinas to a second near Michigan. The Michigan high will become dominant as it drifts E and absorbs the high across the Carolinas. The ridging will strengthen in the Carolinas somewhat 21/05 night, while remaining broad/weak across the Mid Atlantic into early 21/05.

Low pressure will develop across the Carolinas on 21/05, strengthening gale as it moves NE to the S of New England by early 22/05. Associated front will extend from gale S and then SW to Georgia am/22/05 moving ESE slowing by early 23/05. A new low will then develop along the front to the E of the Carolinas late 22/05, moving NE to the Gulf of Maine by am 24/05. Low will weaken and drift across Maine thru remainder of 24/05.

Conclusion: low developing just north of Cape Hatteras 21/05 morning will quickly build swell up to 10 feet and increase winds to near 30kts south of about 36N and west of 74W in Zone I 21/05 morning. By 21/05 evening these strong conditions will be found across much of Zone I south of 37N. 21/05 night, the strong S winds and building swell will begin to move into the NW Zone F. On the morning of 22/05, conditions will begin to slowly ease from the coast E as the low moves out of the area. Swell will ease below 10 feet and winds will decrease below 20kts by the afternoon of the 22/05 in Zone I and on the night of the 22nd in Zone F.


ZONE F :

20/12 (T + 0): N-NE 14-19KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-7FT (4SEC). CLEAR. CURRENTS NNW 0.3KTS.

21/00 (T + 12): NE-E 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NE-E 5-7FT (5SEC). PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHWRS. CRRNTS S 0.5KTS.

21/12 (T + 24): E-SE INCREASE 15-25KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS E-SE 7-9FT (4SEC). CLDY. SQUALLS. CRRNTS NE 0.3KTS.

22/00 (T + 36): VEER SE-S-SW 25-30 GUSTS 35KTS. SEAS 6-8 SWELLS SE-S 9-11FT (4SEC). CLDY. SCATTERED SQUALLS. CRRNTS SSW 0.9KTS.

22/12 (T + 48): SW-W 30-35 GUSTS 40KTS. SEAS 5-7 SWELLS S-SW 11-13FT (5SEC). CLDY. CRRNTS N 0.9KTS.


ZONE I :

20/12 (T + 0): VEER NW-N-NE 15-20KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-6FT (2SEC). CLEAR. CRRNTS N 0.3KTS.

21/00 (T + 12): NE-E 20-25KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS ENE-ESE 6-8FT (2SEC). CLDY. ISOLATED SHWRS. CRRNTS NNE 0.2KTS.

21/12 (T + 24): BACK NE-N-NW 25-30 GUSTS 35KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS E-SE 8-10FT (2SEC). CLDY. SQUALLS. CRRNTS E 0.3KTS.

22/00 (T + 36): NNW-WNW 30-35 GUSTS 40KTS. SEAS 6-8 SWELLS E-SE/MIXED/N 10-12FT (2SEC). CLDY. ISOLATED SQUALLS. CRRNTS NNE 1.1KTS.

22/12 (T + 48): NNW-WNW 25-30KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE 10-12FT (2SEC). CLDY. CRRNTS N 0.5KTS.