Bermuda to Portsmouth WX 18 May

Ridge of high pressure from 33N/50W W to 65W will move to 25N/68W ENE to 31N/50W on the night 19/05 then drifts S thru 21/05.  An area of low pressure now forming off the S Carolina coast will move ENE to 36N/65W thru later 19/05, then strengthens into a gale while moving NE to 41N/50W thru 21/05.

An associated front is located just offshore the US East Coast. Will move E, and extend from the low SW to Exumas on 19/05. Then drift SE thru 21/05.  A weak area of high pressure will form near 33N/73W on night of 19/05, will move NE to 38N/60W on 21/05.  A strong low will likely form over S Carolina on the morning of 21/05, which will strengthen while moving NE to the entrance of the Chesapeake thru the night of 21/05.

Conclusions:
Moderate to fresh S-SE breezes across Zones C, K and F this morning will slowly veer to SW tonight thru tomorrow morning. These S-SWs will become strong to near gale with frequent gale force gusts in squalls. These squalls will overspread the Central and S portions of Zone F this afternoon thru tomorrow morning. This will likewise be the case for Zones K and C, though the squalls will persist for these zones thru tomorrow night. The wind regime will transition to NW-N-NE from west to east from 19/05/12Z-20th/12Z.

Another strong low expected to move offshore of the Chesapeake during the afternoon/evening hours of 21/05. Widespread strong squalls will accompany this low, with gale force winds and seas likely exceed 12 ft at times, especially near and north of Cape Hatteras over the Gulf Stream as rough N winds develop overnight into 22/05. To minimize these periods of rough weather, vessels should consider diverting on a W route toward South Carolina.

The main area of the Gulf Stream extends thru Zone I from about 34-00N/76-30W NE to near 37-30N/74W at an average of 1.5kts. The Gulf Stream also runs across the N edge of Zone F north of about 37N at an average of 1.0kts. In Zone C, a current runs SSW from about 35N/66.5W to 33N/67.5W at an average of 1.5kts.



ZONE C :

18/12 (T + 0): SE-S 13-18 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS SE-S 3-6FT (6SEC). CLOUDY PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED SQUALLS. CURRENTS W 0.3KTS.
19/00 (T + 12): SSE-SSW 17-24 GUSTS 32KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS SE-S/MIXED/SW BUILD 5-10FT (6SEC). MOSTLY CLOUDY PATCHY FOG. SQUALLS. CURRENTS NW 0.3KTS.
19/12 (T + 24): SSW-WSW 23-30 GUSTS 38KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS S-SW 9-12FT (6SEC). CLOUDY. SCATTERED SQUALLS. CURRENTS NW 0.4KTS.
20/00 (T + 36): VEER SW-W-NW EASE 25-15KTS. SEAS 5-3 SWELLS S-SW/MIXED/NW 8-11FT (6SEC). CLOUDY. SCATTERED SQUALLS. CURRENTS S / WEAKKTS.
20/12 (T + 48): NW-N 11-16 GUSTS 19KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS SW-W/MIXED/N 5-8FT (6SEC). CLOUDY. ISOLATED SQUALLS. CURRENTS FROM NNW 0.5KTS.



ZONE F :

18/12 (T + 0): VEER SE-S-SW 15-20 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS SE-S 4-6FT (7SEC). CLOUDY. SQUALLS. CURRENTS NW 0.2KTS.
19/00 (T + 12): VEER SW-W-NW INCREASE 16-32 GUSTS 38KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS SE-S/MIXED/SW BUILD 5-10FT (6SEC). CLOUDY PATCHY FOG. SQUALLS. CURRENTS E 0.1KTS.
19/12 (T + 24): W-NW/VARY/SW EASE 32-18KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS SSW-WSW/MIXED/N 7-10FT (6SEC). CLOUDY PATCHY FOG. ISOLATED SHWRS. CURRENTS ESE 0.4KTS.
20/00 (T + 36): NW-N 14-19 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE/MIXED/SW 6-9FT (6SEC). CLOUDY. ISOLATED SQUALLS. CURRENTS S 0.3KTS.
20/12 (T + 48): NNW-NNE 11-16 GUSTS 20KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 5-8FT (6SEC). PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SQUALLS. CURRENTS NE 0.2KTS.



ZONE I :

18/12 (T + 0): BACK SE-E-NE 17-22 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS SE-S/MIXED/NE 4-7FT (6SEC). CLOUDY. SQUALLS. CURRENTS ENE 0.3KTS.
19/00 (T + 12): N-NE 20-29 GUSTS 36KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NNE-ENE/MIXED/SW 6-9FT (5SEC). MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SQUALLS. CURRENTS NNE 0.3KTS.
19/12 (T + 24): N-NE 17-23 GUSTS 30KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NE 6-9FT (5SEC). PARTY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SQUALLS. CURRENTS NE 0.4KTS.
20/00 (T + 36): N-NE 12-17 GUSTS 21KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-ENE 5-8FT (6SEC). PARTY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SQUALLS. CURRENTS ENE 0.3KTS.
20/12 (T + 48): NNE-ENE 11-16 GUSTS 20KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NE-E 4-7FT (6SEC). CLEAR. CURRENTS NNE 0.2KTS.



ZONE K :

18/12 (T + 0): VEER SE-S-SW 15-20 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS S-SW 3-6FT (7SEC). CLOUDY. SQUALLS. CURRENTS SE 0.9KTS.
19/00 (T + 12): S-SW 15-20 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS S-W 5-8FT (6SEC). CLOUDY PATCHY FOG. SQUALLS. CURRENTS E 1KTS.
19/12 (T + 24): VEER SW-W-NW INCREASE 18-34 GUSTS 40KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS S-SW BUILD 8-12FT (6SEC). CLOUDY PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED SQUALLS. CURRENTS ESE 0.7KTS.
20/00 (T + 36): NW-N EASE 30-17KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS S-SW/MIXED/NW BUILD 8-12FT (6SEC). PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SQUALLS. CURRENTS FROM E 0.8KTS.
20/12 (T + 48): NNW-NNE 13-18 GUSTS 21KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS W-NW/MIXED/N 6-9FT (6SEC). PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SQUALLS. CURRENTS E 0.3KTS.

ENDS