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WX ARC 2017 22 Nov



Synopsis: Good morning. A cold front extends S along the W Iberian Coast and SW towards NW of the Canaries, with an area of low pressure located along this front over about Madeira. This front and associated low will continue to weaken while moving E into Iberia thru tomorrow. Tomorrow morning, another developing gale will be located near about 38N/35W, strengthening while moving SE towards about 32N/26W thru midday 24.This gale will then slowly weaken while meandering E towards Madeira thru the evening of the 26. On the evening of the 26, high pressure located near 43N/48W will extend a weak ridge S towards about 30N/55W, and an even weaker ridge SE towards 20N/30W towards the Cape Verdes. This ridge will persist thru the 27, changing rather little in strength. On the 26, a "cut off" gale will be centered near about 34N/43W, meandering S towards 30N thru the 27 while gradually weakening.


Conclusion:


Zone BB: Conditions will worsen across Zone BB over the next 48 hours as moderate to fresh NW ease initially but will re-strengthen while shifting into fresh SW that may gust into the upper 20s by the morning of the 24. Swells will gradually build to 7-9ft and will remain long in period.


Zone GG: Conditions will remain moderately favorable for transit across Zone GG in the next 48 hours as moderate to fresh NE that may produce gusts into the middle 20s continue during this time. Swells will build to 4-6ft and will remain long in period. Winds may be locally higher at times while abeam capes due to localized funneling of winds.


Zone MM: Conditions will remain moderately favorable for transit across Zone MM in the next 48 hours as moderate to fresh NE that may produce gusts into the middle 20s freshen into fresh to strong NE that may gust into the low 30s by the 24. Winds may be locally higher at times while abeam capes due to localized funneling of winds. Swells will gradually build to 5-7ft by the 24 and will remain long in period.


Zone CC: Conditions will worsen over the next 48 hours across Zone CC as the gentle to moderate NE freshen and shift to fresh to strong NW that may gust into the low 30s by the 24. Swells will build to 11-13ft by the 24 and will be highest in the N and W portions of the zone but will be long in period.


Zone HH: Conditions will be generally favorable for transit across Zone HH in the next 48 hours as gentle to moderate NE freshen and shift into moderate to fresh SW that may gust into the low 20s by the 24. Swells will build to 5-7ft and will remain long in period.

 

T=22NOV 0600 UTC


BB FORECAST:

T + 0:N-NW(0 - 315) 13-18 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS W-NW 5-7FT MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS. WSW @ 0.8KTS.

T + 12:N-NW(0 - 315) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS W-NW 6-8FT PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS. W @ 1.1KTS.

T + 24: N-NW/VARY/S(0 - 315) 06-11KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS W-NW 6-8FT CLDY. WSW @ 0.9KTS.

T + 36: S-SW(180 - 225) 11-18 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS W-NW 5-7FT CLDY. W @ 1.1KTS.

T + 48: S-SW(180 - 225) 18-23 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS W-NW 7-9FT MSTLY CLDY. WSW @ 1KTS.


GG FORECAST:

T + 0:N-NE(0 - 45) 08-13 GUSTS 18KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS SW-W 2-4FT PRTLY CLDY. NNE @ 0.3KTS.

T + 12:N-NE(0 - 45) 12-17 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS SW-W 3-5FT MSTLY CLDY. NE @ 0.4KTS.

T + 24: N-NE(0 - 45) 11-16 GUSTS 21KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS W-NW 4-6FT CLEAR. NE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36: N-NE(0 - 45) 10-15 GUSTS 20KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS W-NW 4-6FT CLDY. NE @ 0.3KTS.

T + 48: NE-E(45 - 90) 15-20 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS W-NW 4-6FT MSTLY CLDY. NNE @ 0.3KTS.


MM FORECAST:

T + 0:N-NE(0 - 45) 14-19 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NE-N 4-6FT MSTLY CLDY. NNE @ 0.3KTS.

T + 12:N-NE(0 - 45) 15-20 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NE-N 4-6FT MSTLY CLDY. E @ 0.4KTS.

T + 24: N-NE(0 - 45) 15-20 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NE-N 4-6FT CLEAR. SSE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36: N-NE(0 - 45) 15-20 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NE-N 4-6FT CLDY. N @ 0.1KTS.

T + 48: N-NE(0 - 45) 20-25 GUSTS 30KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-N 5-7FT CLDY. N @ 0.2KTS.


CC FORECAST:

T + 0:N-NE(0 - 45) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NW 6-8FT MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS. NNW @ 0.1KTS.

T + 12:N-NE/VARY/SW(0 - 45) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NW 6-8FT PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS. SE @ 0.1KTS.

T + 24: SW-W(225 - 270) 08-17 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NW 5-7FT PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*. WSW @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36: SW-W(225 - 270) 17-22 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NW BUILD 7-11FT MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*. WNW @ 0.2KTS.

T + 48: W-NW(270 - 315) 22-27 GUSTS 32KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS N-NW 11-13FT PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*. WSW @ 0.1KTS.


HH FORECAST:

T + 0:NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NW 4-6FT CLDY. ENE @ 0.1KTS.

T + 12:NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NW 4-6FT MSTLY CLDY. NNE @ 0.3KTS.

T + 24: E-SE(90 - 135) 05-10KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NW 4-6FT MSTLY CLDY. NNE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36: SW-S-SW(225 - 225) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NW 4-6FT CLEAR. NW @ 0.2KTS.

T + 48: SW-W(225 - 270) 13-18 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NW 5-7FT CLEAR. NNE @ 0.3KTS.


* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS