WX ARC Caribbean 1500 & ARC Bahamas 2017 14 Nov

Good morning.

A trough of low pressure currently extends from W Caribbean NE across S Bahamas towards Bermuda. Will tend to shift very little through tomorrow while beginning to elongate, stretching from S Bahamas NE towards 35N/55W. Thereafter, trough will weaken while shifting SE to extend across Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands thru 16th.

A ridge of high pressure currently extends SE across SE US towards Bahamas. Will tend to break down and gradually weaken thru 16th.

Zone FF: Conditions will be heavily influenced by the trough currently in place across the N part . As this trough slowly shifts from NW to SE across the zone through the forecast period, showers/squalls will also increase in coverage (some strong to possibly severe). Additionally, wind/SEA will be dependent upon which side of the trough one is located on. The N part of the zone will tend to see more NE wind as trough moves thru whereas S part of the zone will mainly see SW breeze (tending to be more variable/mixed near the center of the trough axis).

Zone II: will remain south of the elongated trough for the most part. SE will shift SW as trough weakens and approaches. Squalls will increase in coverage by 16th across the zone, but less numerous/strong overall by this point as the trough weakens.

FF :
14/12 + 0 WIND SE-S( 12-17KTS. SEA 2-3 SWLL E-SE 4-7FT (6SEC). CLDY. SCTTRD SHWRS/SQLLS. CRRNTS SE 0.1KTS.

15/00 + 12 WIND S-SW 15-20 GUSTS 30KTS. SEA 3-4 SWLL E-SE 5-8FT (6SEC). MSTLY CLDY. SCTTRD SHWRS/SQLLS. CRRNTS SW 0.3KTS.

15/12 + 24 WIND S-SW/VARY/NE 20-25 GUSTS 33KTS. SEA 4-5 SWLL E-SE/MIXED/SW 5-8FT (5SEC). CLDY. SHWRS/SQLLS. CRRNTS WSW 0.2KTS.

16/00 + 36 WIND S-SW/VARY/NE 18-23 GUSTS 30KTS. SEA 4-5 SWLL SW-S/MIXED/NE 5-8FT (6SEC). MSTLY CLDY. SHWRS/SQLLS. CRRNTS SW 0.4KTS.

16/12 + 48 WIND SW-NW-NE 15-20 GUSTS 28KTS. SEA 3-4 SWLL SW-S/MIXED/NE 5-8FT (5SEC). CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS. CRRNTS N 0.5KTS.


II :
14/12 + 0 WIND ESE-SSE 12-17KTS. SEA 2-3 SWLL E-NE 4-7FT (6SEC). MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQLLS. CRRNTS NE 0.4KTS.

15/00 + 12 WIND SE-S 13-18KTS. SEA 2-3 SWLL E-NE 4-7FT (5SEC). MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQLLS. CRRNTS E 0.4KTS.

15/12 + 24 WIND SSE-SSW 14-19 GUSTS 27KTS. SEA 3-4 SWLL ENE-ESE 4-7FT (5SEC). PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQLLS. CRRNTS ENE 0.3KTS.

16/00 + 36 WIND S-SW 15-20 GUSTS 28KTS. SEA 3-4 SWLL ENE-ESE 4-7FT (6SEC). CLDY. SCTTRD SHWRS/SQLLS. CRRNTS NNE 0.1KTS.

16/12 + 48 WIND S-SW 14-19 GUSTS 27KTS. SEA 3-4 SWLL ENE-ESE 4-7FT (5SEC). PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQLLS. CRRNTS NE 0.2KTS.


ENDS.