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WX ARC 2017 06 DEC



Synopsis:Good morning.A gale is currently centered near 38N/45W, and will gradually weaken into a low while moving E towards 38N/40W thru the 07.The low will continue to weaken while drifting SSE towards 25N/35W thru early 09.High pressure is currently centered near Bermuda, with ridging extending S across the Bahamas and into the E Caribbean. Ridging will persist thru tomorrow as the low shifts E towards 30N/60W and stalls. Thru the 08.this ridging will strengthen slightly.


Conclusion:


Zone II: The aforementioned gale and associated trough located just to the NW of this zone will result more variable conditions across this zone. Areas to the SW will tend to see more E-SE light breezes, whereas areas to the NW will see more NE-NW breezes by tomorrow and thru the 08 as the trough moves across the zone. Shorter period E swell will become dominant from the NW by overnight tonight, and continue to build into the 08.


Zone OO: This zone will remain far enough to the south of the gale/trough where general E will continue thru the 08.while also weakening somewhat.

Breezes will tend stronger in the S part of the zone, weaker north. Swell will build from the NW by tomorrow and continue to build into the 08 across the zone (highest N and NW).


Zone JJ:Variable breezes today will become more widespread N-NE by tomorrow and into the 08 as the trough moves across this zone. Winds will also gradually freshen somewhat thru tomorrow and into the 08 as a fresh ridge builds behind the low. As with the above zones, swell will build from the NW by overnight tonight and continue thru the 08.


Zone PP: Like with OO, this zone will see NE persist thru the 08 with the gale remaining well to the north, and ridging building in behind it. Swell will build from the NW-N by tomorrow morning, continuing to build thru the 08 (highest sets across N areas).


Zone QQ and RR: These zones will also be mainly impacted by persistent ridging, which will gradually increase thru the next few days and gradually increase E-NE accordingly. E-NE wind driven waves will become dominated by N long period swell, building by tomorrow and thru the 08.


T=06 DEC 0600 UTC


II FORECAST:

T+0:E-SE/VARY/SW(90 - 135) 10-15 GUSTS 20KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-NE 3-6FT MSTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS*SE @ 0.2KTS.

T+12:E-SE/VARY/NE(90 - 135) 08-13KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS E-NE/MIXED/NW 3-6FT CLDY ISLTD SHWRS* SE @ 0.2KTS.

T+24:E-SE/VARY/N(90 - 135) 08-13KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS WNW-NNW 5-8FT CLDY SCATTERED SHWRS* SE @ 0.2KTS.

T+36:E-NE/VARY/NW(90 - 45) 09-14KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS WNW-NNW 6-9FT MSTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS*SE @ 0.2KTS.

T+48:NW-N/VARY/NE(315 - 0) 09-14KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS WNW-NNW 7-10FT PRTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS*SE @ 0.2KTS.


OO FORECAST:

T+0:NE-E(45 - 90) 11-16KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-7FT MSTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS.S @ 0.2KTS.

T+12:ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 09-14KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-7FT CLEAR.S @ 0.2KTS.

T+24:ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-13KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NE-E/MIXED/NW 3-6FT CLDY S @ 0.2KTS.

T+36:ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-13KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS WNW-NNW 4-7FT MSTLY CLDY S @ 0.2KTS.

T+48:ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 09-14KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS WNW-NNW 5-8FT CLDY S @ 0.2KTS.


JJ FORECAST:

T+0:E-SE/VARY/NW(90 - 135) 07-12KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS E-SE 3-6FT CLDY ISLTD SHWRS.NNW / WEAKKTS.

T+12:NW-N(315 - 0) 09-14KTS.SEAS 1-2 SWELLS E-SE/MIXED/NW 6-9FT CLDY ISLTD SHWRS* NNW / WEAKKTS.

T+24:NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 11-16KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS WNW-NNW 7-10FT MSTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS*NNW / WEAKKTS.

T+36:NNW-NNE(338 - 23) 12-17KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS WNW-NNW 8-11FT CLEAR.NNW / WEAKKTS.

T+48:N-NE(0 - 45) 12-17KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 8-11FT CLEAR.NNW / WEAKKTS.


PP FORECAST:

T+0:NE-E(45 - 90) 12-17KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS ENE-ESE 4-7FT CLDY ISLTD SHWRS* SE @ 0.3KTS.

T+12:NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE 4-7FT CLDY SE @ 0.3KTS.

T+24:NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE/MIXED/NW 4-7FT CLDY ISLTD SHWRS* SE @ 0.3KTS.

T+36:NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 5-8FT MSTLY CLDY SE @ 0.3KTS.

T+48:NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 12-17KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 6-9FT CLEAR.SE @ 0.3KTS.


QQ FORECAST:

T+0:NE-E(45 - 90) 12-17KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE 4-7FT MSTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS* SE @ 0.4KTS.

T+12:NE-E(45 - 90) 12-17KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS E-SE/MIXED/N 4-7FT CLDY ISLTD SHWRS* SE @ 0.4KTS.

T+24:NE-E(45 - 90) 13-18KTS.SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 5-8FT PRTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS* SE @ 0.4KTS.

T+36:NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 15-20 GUSTS 23KTS.SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 6-9FT PRTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS.SE @ 0.4KTS.

T+48:NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 16-21 GUSTS 24KTS.SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNW-NNE 7-10FT CLDY SE @ 0.4KTS.


RR FORECAST:

T+0:NE-E(45 - 90) 13-18 GUSTS 21KTS.SEAS 3-4 SWELLS E-SE 4-7FT MSTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS* WNW @ 0.1KTS.

T+12:NE-E(45 - 90) 13-18 GUSTS 21KTS.SEAS 3-4 SWELLS E-SE/MIXED/N 4-7FT PRTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS*WNW @ 0.1KTS.

T+24:NE-E(45 - 90) 15-20 GUSTS 23KTS.SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-8FT MSTLY CLDY SCATTERED SHWRS* WNW @ 0.1KTS.

T+36:NE-E(45 - 90) 16-21 GUSTS 24KTS.SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 6-9FT PRTLY CLDY SCATTERED SHWRS* WNW @ 0.1KTS.

T+48:NE-E(45 - 90) 18-23 GUSTS 26KTS.SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 7-10FT MSTLY CLDY ISLTD SHWRS* WNW @ 0.1KTS.

* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS