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WX ARC 2017 29 Nov



Synopsis: Good morning. High pressure centered near 55N/23W will extend a strong ridge S towards about 35N. A much weaker part of this ridge will build S across the Canary Islands and SSW along the coast of Morocco/Western Sahara thru the 01, extending farther S and W towards 25N/35W thru the 02 and into the 03 . A thermal trough of low pressure extending N along the W coast of Africa (east of the Cape Verdes) will persist over the next several days. Low pressure is currently centered near 40N/40W, and will strengthen into a gale while moving SSE towards 35N/35W thru tomorrow night. The gale will then broaden and meander N towards 40N/35W thru the 02 , then slowly weakening and dissipating into the 03 . Early 03, another low will begin to form near 30N/50W and quickly move ENE towards 35N/35W while strengthening into a gale as well. This gale will develop a front that extends SW towards 25N/55W thru the 03 .


Conclusion:


Zone CC: W-SW across this zone will tend to persist thru the forecast period as the first of several gales passes just to the north of this zone.

Winds will be generally on the higher end of forecast ranges (or slightly

higher) across N portions. Swell will increase from NW to SE thru the zone by the 01 , with the highest values in the NW quadrant.


Zone DD: Similar to CC, WSW will persist thru today, then tend to shift more NW across the zone 30th and into the 01 (with the highest winds farthest north once again). Again, swell will increase from NW to SE across the area beginning tomorrow and into the 01 .


Zone EE: With this area on the back side of the gale for the most part, winds will tend lighter across the zone thru the forecast period (strongest north and NW) while shifting from W-N-NE . Swell will increase from N to S across the zone by the 01 , highest sets will be in the N and NE portions.


Be advised that wind/seas conditions are expected to remain much higher across these zones above (especially in N portions) in the long range outlook due to an active gale pattern. Conditions are expected to be much more favorable in zones farther south during the upcoming 3-7 days.


Zones JJ, II and HH: These zones will continue to be in the "neutral zone"

between higher pressure to the south, and lower to the north. Winds will tend to be generally light across these zones, with NE more common in S parts of the zones, and more W in N portions. On the 01 , swell will build from NW to SE across these zones, reaching JJ a bit sooner, and HH towards the very end of the forecast period.


Zones GG and MM: These zones will continue to be influenced by thermal effects, especially closer to the coast. NE will be persistent, generally stronger in E areas near the African Coast. N long period swell will be the primary sea type, with some S sets also possible in zone MM.


Zones NN, OO, and PP: Moderate to fresh E-NE will persist across these zones, being far enough south of low pressure systems to the north. Swell will tend to lower thru these zones thru the forecast period, before conditions build by the 02nd.


T=29 NOV 0600 UTC


CC FORECAST:

T + 0 :SW-W(225 - 270) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.4KTS.

T + 12 :SW-W(225 - 270) 11-16 GUSTS 21KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.1KTS.

T + 24 :SSW-WSW(203 - 248) 13-18 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS*N @ 0.4KTS.

T + 36 :SSW-WSW(203 - 248) 13-18 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NW 4-7FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS*NW @ 0.1KTS.

T + 48 :SW-W(225 - 270) 11-16 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS WNW-NNW 6-9FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.4KTS.


DD FORECAST:

T + 0 :WNW-WSW(293 - 248) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* SE / WEAKKTS.

T + 12 :WNW-WSW(293 - 248) 10-15KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* NNW @ 0.3KTS.

T + 24 :WNW-WSW(293 - 248) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NNE-NNW 4-7FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS*N / WEAKKTS.

T + 36 :WNW-NNW(293 - 338) 10-15 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NW-N 7-10FT CLEAR. N @ 0.3KTS.

T + 48 :NW-N(315 - 0) 09-14KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NW-N 8-11FT CLEAR. NE @ 0.1KTS.


EE FORECAST:

T + 0 :SW-W(225 - 270) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT MSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS* WSW @ 0.5KTS.

T + 12 :W-NW-N(270 - 0) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT MSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS* WNW @ 0.5KTS.

T + 24 :N-NE(0 - 45) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 4-7FT PRTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS* WSW @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NW 6-9FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* WNW @ 0.4KTS.

T + 48 :NE-E(45 - 90) 09-14KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NW 7-10FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* W @ 0.3KTS.


JJ FORECAST:

T + 0 :NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT MSTLY CLOUDY. NE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 12 :NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 0-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* NE @ 0.3KTS.

T + 24 :NE-E(45 - 90) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 2-5FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS. ENE @ 0.1KTS.

T + 36 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS*NNE / WEAKKTS.

T + 48 :E-SE(90 - 135) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 4-7FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* ENE @ 0.2KTS.


II FORECAST:

T + 0 :E-NE(90 - 45) 07-12KTS. SEAS 0-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS* S @ 0.2KTS.

T + 12 :E-SE/VARY/SW(90 - 135) 06-11KTS. SEAS 0-2 SWELLS N-NE 2-5FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS. SE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 24 :E-SE/VARY/SW(90 - 135) 05-10KTS. SEAS 0-2 SWELLS N-NE 2-5FT PRTLY CLOUDY. S @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36 :E-SE/VARY/SW(90 - 135) 05-10KTS. SEAS 0-2 SWELLS N-NE 1-4FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS. SSE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 48 :NE-E/VARY/SW(45 - 90) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 4-7FT CLEAR. SE @ 0.3KTS.


HH FORECAST:

T + 0 :NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. NNE @ 0.5KTS.

T + 12 :NE-E(45 - 90) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. NE @ 0.8KTS.

T + 24 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. NE @ 0.6KTS.

T + 36 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 2-5FT CLEAR. NE @ 0.4KTS.

T + 48 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT CLOUDY. NNE @ 0.5KTS.


GG FORECAST:

T + 0 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT CLOUDY. N @ 0.3KTS.

T + 12 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 12-17KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 2-5FT PRTLY CLOUDY. NE @ 0.3KTS.

T + 24 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 2-5FT CLEAR. N @ 0.3KTS.

T + 36 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 2-5FT CLEAR. NE @ 0.3KTS.

T + 48 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT MSTLY CLOUDY. NNW @ 0.2KTS.


MM FORECAST:

T + 0 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 3-6FT CLOUDY. SW @ 0.1KTS.

T + 12 :N-NE(0 - 45) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 3-6FT CLOUDY. S @ 0.2KTS.

T + 24 :N-NE(0 - 45) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 2-5FT MSTLY CLOUDY. SW @ 0.3KTS.

T + 36 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 2-5FT CLOUDY. WSW @ 0.2KTS.

T + 48 :N-NE(0 - 45) 11-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 2-5FT PRTLY CLOUDY. NNW @ 0.1KTS.


NN FORECAST:

T + 0 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. SE @ 0.4KTS.

T + 12 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. ESE @ 0.5KTS.

T + 24 :NE-E(45 - 90) 11-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. SE @ 0.4KTS.

T + 36 :NE-E(45 - 90) 11-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 2-5FT PRTLY CLOUDY. SE @ 0.6KTS.

T + 48 :NE-E(45 - 90) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 2-5FT MSTLY CLOUDY. S @ 0.3KTS.


OO FORECAST:

T + 0 :NE-E(45 - 90) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT CLEAR. NNE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 12 :NE-E(45 - 90) 11-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* NE @ 0.1KTS.

T + 24 :NE-E(45 - 90) 11-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. NE @ 0.1KTS.

T + 36 :NE-E(45 - 90) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLOUDY. NE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 48 :NE-E(45 - 90) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLOUDY. NNW @ 0.2KTS.


PP FORECAST:

T + 0 :NE-E(45 - 90) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT MSTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* ESE @ 0.3KTS.

T + 12 :NE-E(45 - 90) 12-17KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* E @ 0.3KTS.

T + 24 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* E @ 0.5KTS.

T + 36 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 12-17KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* SE @ 0.5KTS.

T + 48 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT MSTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* SE @ 0.2KTS.

* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS