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WX ARC 2017 28 Nov



Synopsis: Good morning. Low pressure currently centered southeast of Santa Maria will continue to weaken while sliding E across the Iberian Peninsula thru tomorrow. Generally weak pressure gradients are expected to persist south of this gale from about 30N S towards the Cape Verdes thru today. On the 29, a strong high will be centered near 55N/23W, with a ridge extending S across the Balearics towards about 35N. This ridge will gradually expand S towards the Balearics and NW Africa thru the 01, then persist thru the 03 while remaining weak. A weak thermal trough along the coast of W Africa (west of the Cape Verdes) will remain weak over the next several days. On the 01, a small gale will be centered near 35N/35W, and will move NE over the Azores thru the 02.


Conclusion:


Zone BB: Conditions across this zone will vary dependent on location. Areas farther to the north and west will see winds more so from the W-SW (closer to lower pressure north of the zone), and NE will be more common farther S and SE closer to the coast and a thermal influence. N long period swell will be the dominate wave type thru the forecast period.


Zone CC and DD: General light to moderate WSW will persist across these zone thru much of the period, closer to the "troughiness" of low pressure to the north. W-SW will begin to increase during the end of the forecast period as the next gale approaches (strongest farther to the north and west in the zones). N-NE swell will begin to mix with NW sets by the 30, increasing more so across zone DD.


Zone EE: This zone will be far enough south to not be heavily influenced by the developing gale to the north, or ridging to the south. As a result, broad pressure gradients will be found in this "neutral zone", and therefore light breezes (shifting from W-NW to more NE as the gale passes on the 30).

NE swell will be expected thru the 29, increasing and becoming more N by the 30.


Zone JJ, II and HH: Similar to the above, these zones will also mainly be located in this "neutral zone" between lower pressure farther north, and higher pressure to the south. This will result in light and varying breezes: more E in S portions of the zones, and more W across N portions of these zones (especially tomorrow and on the 30). Long period N-NE swell will be the main sea type thru the forecast period, also lowering thru the next few days.


Zone GG and MM: These zones will primarily see conditions as a result of broad ridging, and an interaction with the coastal thermal trough. Persistent N-NE will be generally strongest closer to the coast. Long period N swell will be highest offshore, and lower closer to the coast (some S sets may mix in to zone MM at times).


Zone NN and OO: Light/moderate NE-E trade winds will be persistent thru these zones, the furthest south and away from low pressure to the north. Long period N-NE swell will mix in with light wind driven sets.


T=28 NOV 0600 UTC


BB FORECAST:

T + 0 :SW-W/VARY/NE(225 - 270) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT CLOUDY. W @ 0.7KTS.

T + 12 :SW-W/VARY/NE(225 - 270) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS. WSW @ 0.9KTS.

T + 24 :SW-W/VARY/NE(225 - 270) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS. W @ 0.8KTS.

T + 36 :SW-W/VARY/NE(225 - 270) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS. W @ 0.8KTS.

T + 48 :SW-W/VARY/NE(225 - 270) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT CLOUDY. W @ 0.8KTS.


CC FORECAST:

T + 0 :WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.4KTS.

T + 12 :WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.2KTS.

T + 24 :SW-W(225 - 270) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. N @ 0.4KTS.

T + 36 :SW-W(225 - 270) 12-17 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS* N @ 0.1KTS.

T + 48 :SW-W(225 - 270) 13-18 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/NW 4-7FT MSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS* N @ 0.4KTS.


DD FORECAST:

T + 0 :W-NW(270 - 315) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-6FT CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* NW @ 0.1KTS.

T + 12 :WNW-WSW(293 - 248) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.2KTS.

T + 24 :WNW-WSW(293 - 248) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-5FT CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* WSW @ 0.1KTS.

T + 36 :WNW-WSW(293 - 248) 11-16 GUSTS 21KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/NW 3-5FT CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* NNW @ 0.3KTS.

T + 48 :W-NW(270 - 315) 12-17 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NW/MIXED/NE 6-9FT MSTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* WSW @ 0.1KTS.


EE FORECAST:

T + 0 :WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT PRTLY CLOUDY. W @ 0.4KTS.

T + 12 :WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* W @ 0.4KTS.

T + 24 :W-NW(270 - 315) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT MSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHWRS* WSW @ 0.5KTS.

T + 36 :W-NW(270 - 315) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* WNW @ 0.5KTS.

T + 48 :NW-N-NE(315 - 45) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 4-7FT MSTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* SW @ 0.2KTS.


JJ FORECAST:

T + 0 :NE-E(45 - 90) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT MSTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS. E @ 0.1KTS.

T + 12 :NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.1KTS.

T + 24 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. NE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* NNE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 48 :NE-E(45 - 90) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.1KTS.


II FORECAST:

T + 0 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* S @ 0.3KTS.

T + 12 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* E @ 0.3KTS.

T + 24 :E-SE/VARY/NE(90 - 135) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* S @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36 :E-SE/VARY/W(90 - 135) 05-10KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* SE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 48 :E-SE/VARY/W(90 - 135) 06-11KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 2-5FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* SSE @ 0.3KTS.


HH FORECAST:

T + 0 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT CLEAR. NNE @ 0.8KTS.

T + 12 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. NE @ 0.7KTS.

T + 24 :NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. NNE @ 0.6KTS.

T + 36 :NE-E/VARY/W(45 - 90) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. NE @ 0.8KTS.

T + 48 :NE-E/VARY/SW(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. NE @ 0.6KTS.


GG FORECAST:

T + 0 :N-NE(0 - 45) 13-18KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 2-5FT CLOUDY. NW @ 0.3KTS.

T + 12 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 3-6FT CLOUDY. NNE @ 0.4KTS.

T + 24 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE 3-6FT CLOUDY. NNE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE BUILD 1-5FT CLEAR. NNE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 48 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNW-NNE BUILD 1-5FT CLEAR. NNE @ 0.4KTS.


MM FORECAST:

T + 0 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 4-7FT CLOUDY. SSW @ 0.1KTS.

T + 12 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 4-7FT CLOUDY. ENE @ 0.1KTS.

T + 24 :N-NE(0 - 45) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 4-7FT CLOUDY. S @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36 :N-NE(0 - 45) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 3-6FT MSTLY CLOUDY. SSW @ 0.2KTS.

T + 48 :N-NE(0 - 45) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NE/MIXED/S 3-6FT MSTLY CLOUDY. WSW @ 0.2KTS.


NN FORECAST:

T + 0 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT CLEAR. E @ 0.4KTS.

T + 12 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT CLEAR. ESE @ 0.7KTS.

T + 24 :NNE-ENE(23 - 68) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT CLEAR. SSE @ 0.4KTS.

T + 36 :NE-E(45 - 90) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. ESE @ 0.4KTS.

T + 48 :NE-E(45 - 90) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT CLEAR. ESE @ 0.4KTS.


OO FORECAST:

T + 0 :NE-E(45 - 90) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS. N / WEAKKTS.

T + 12 :NE-E(45 - 90) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT CLEAR. E @ 0.2KTS.

T + 24 :NE-E(45 - 90) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 4-7FT CLEAR. NNE @ 0.2KTS.

T + 36 :NE-E(45 - 90) 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT MSTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* NE @ 0.1KTS.

T + 48 :ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS N-NE 3-6FT PRTLY CLOUDY. ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.1KTS.

* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS