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WX ARC 2017 24 Nov



Synopsis: Good morning. A developing gale south of the Azores will strengthen as it moves E to the west of Madeira near 32N/23W by am/26, then slowly weakening as it moves to the north of Madeira near 37N/17W by am/28 where it will stall and continue to weaken thru the 29.


Generally weak ridging currently extends from 35N S towards about 20N, and roughly between 55W to 40W. This ridging will tend to extend SW towards the E Caribbean tomorrow, followed by persisting thru the 26. This same ridging will also expand SE towards the Cape Verde Islands on the 26 and persist thru the 28 before beginning to strengthen on the 29.


A thermal trough of low pressure extending from Senegal N along the coast of Mauritania will persist thru the next few days, varying little in intensity.


Conclusion:


Zone BB: Conditions across this zone will be dominated by the aforementioned gale, moving towards the N part of this zone. Both the strongest SW and highest seas will be found across the more N and NW part of the zone, closest to the center of the gale. An easing trend will begin on the 26.


Zone CC: Similar to zone BB, the heaviest weather conditions will be found across the N part of this zone thanks to the same gale mentioned above. The strongest conditions will persist thru the 25, then lower from SW to NE on the 26.


Zone DD: The aforementioned gale will be located mainly to the east of this zone, which means that the highest winds will be found on the E side of the area. However, higher swell will be mainly widespread thru much of the zone thru the 25 (though highest on the E side overall).


Zone HH: The strongest winds across this zone will be found on the N part of the area (closer to the gale), and tend to ease thru tomorrow and the 26 as the gale weakens and shifts NE. However, higher residual swell will not reach the zone until the 25, then remain heaviest thru early 26.


Zone GG: With the thermal trough persisting along coastal Africa, this will result in more NE breezes in the E part of this zone, and more SW on the W side near the gale and associated trough. Swell from the gale will begin to build into the zone late tomorrow and into the 26.


Zone MM: Similar to GG above, this zone will be far enough south from the Gale, and conditions will be mainly influenced by the thermal trough. The strongest winds will be found closer to the coast, and longer period swell will build into the zone by the 26 from the same gale above.


T=24 NOV 0600 UTC


BB FORECAST:

 T+0:S-SW(180 - 225) 20-25 GUSTS 33KTS. SEAS 5-7 SWELLS WNW-NNW 6-8FT (7SEC). MSTLY CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS* WSW @ 1KTS.

 T+12:S-SW(180 - 225) 22-27 GUSTS 35KTS. SEAS 6-8 SWELLS W-NW/MIXED/SW 8-10FT MSTLY CLDY . SHWRS* WSW @ 1.4KTS.

 T+24:S-SW(180 - 225) 22-27 GUSTS 35KTS. SEAS 7-9 SWELLS W-NW/MIXED/SW 9-11FT CLEAR. SCATTERED SHWRS* W @ 0.8KTS.

 T+36: SSW-WSW(203 - 248) 23-28 GUSTS 38KTS. SEAS 5-7 SWELLS W-NW/MIXED/SW 8-10FT PRTLY CLDY . ISLTDSHWRS.

 W @ 1.3KTS.

 T+48: SSW-WSW(203 - 248) 19-24 GUSTS 29KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS W-NW/MIXED/SW 7-9FT PRTLY CLDY . W @ 0.7KTS.


CC FORECAST:

 T+0:WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 25-30 GUSTS 40KTS. SEAS 5-7 SWELLS WNW-NNW 11-13FT PRTLY CLDY . SCATTERED SHWRS* WNW @ 0.4KTS.

 T+12:W-NW(270 - 315) 28-33 GUSTS 43KTS. SEAS 5-6 SWELLS WNW-NNW 12-14FT MSTLY CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS*  NNW @ 0.4KTS.

 T+24:W-NW(270 - 315) 25-30 GUSTS 38KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS WNW-NNW 10-12FT MSTLY CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS*  WNW @ 0.3KTS.

 T+36: W-NW(270 - 315) 21-26 GUSTS 31KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS WNW-NNW 9-11FT CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS* N @ 0.4KTS.

 T+48: W-NW(270 - 315) 17-22 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NW-N 8-10FT PRTLY CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS* SSW @ 0.1KTS.


DD FORECAST:

 T+0:NW-N(315 - 0) 22-27 GUSTS 35KTS. SEAS 5-7 SWELLS NW-N 11-13FT CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS* NE @ 0.4KTS.

 T+12:NW-N(315 - 0) 18-23 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NW-N 10-12FT CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS* ENE @ 0.2KTS.

 T+24:NNE-NNW(23 - 338) 15-20 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NNW-NNE 9-11FT PRTLY CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS*  NE @ 0.4KTS.

 T+36: NNE-NNW(23 - 338) 13-18 GUSTS 23KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NNW-NNE 8-10FT MSTLY CLDY . NE @ 0.3KTS.

 T+48: NNE-NNW(23 - 338) 11-16KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NE 7-9FT PRTLY CLDY . NE @ 0.2KTS.


HH FORECAST:

 T+0:SSW-WSW(203 - 248) 15-20 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS NW-N 5-7FT MSTLY CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS*  NNE @ 0.3KTS.

 T+12:WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 16-21 GUSTS 29KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NW-N 6-8FT (7SEC). PRTLY CLDY . ISLTD SHWRS*  NNW @ 0.2KTS.

 T+24:W-NW(270 - 315) 12-17KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NW-N 8-10FT PRTLY CLDY . ISLTDSHWRS. NNE @ 0.4KTS.

 T+36: WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS NW-N 8-10FT CLDY . NNE @ 0.5KTS.

 T+48: WSW-WNW(248 - 293) 08-13KTS. SEAS 0-2 SWELLS NW-N 7-9FT PRTLY CLDY . ENE @ 0.1KTS.


GG FORECAST:

 T+0:W-SW/VARY/NE(270 - 225) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS WNW-NNW 3-5FT (7SEC). CLDY . NNE @ 0.3KTS.

 T+12:W-SW/VARY/NE(270 - 225) 10-15KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS WNW-NNW 5-7FT CLDY . N @ 0.1KTS.

 T+24:W-SW/VARY/NE(270 - 225) 09-14KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS WNW-NNW 6-8FT CLEAR. N @ 0.1KTS.

 T+36: W-SW/VARY/NE(270 - 225) 11-16KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS WNW-NNW 6-8FT CLDY . ISLTDSHWRS. N @ 0.4KTS.

 T+48: N-NE/VARY/SW(0 - 45) 10-15KTS. SEAS 1-3 SWELLS WNW-NNW 6-8FT PRTLY CLDY . ISLTDSHWRS. NNE @ 0.2KTS.


MM FORECAST:

 T+0:N-NE(0 - 45) 12-17 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NW 3-6FT CLEAR. N @ 0.5KTS.

 T+12:N-NE(0 - 45) 13-18 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NW 4-7FT CLDY . ENE @ 0.8KTS.

 T+24:N-NE(0 - 45) 13-18 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS N-NW 4-7FT MSTLY CLDY . S @ 0.5KTS.

 T+36: N-NE(0 - 45) 13-18 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NW 4-7FT MSTLY CLDY . W @ 0.4KTS.

 T+48: N-NE(0 - 45) 14-19 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 2-4 SWELLS N-NW 5-8FT MSTLY CLDY . N @ 0.5KTS.

* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS