WX ARC PLUS 2017 21 Nov

WX ARC PLUS 2017 

Synopsis: Good morning. A cold front extending from 25N/35W SW to 20N/55W will shift S while weakening thru tomorrow. A trough of low pressure will develop along 40W from 25N S to 15N tomorrow afternoon. This trough will move Wwhile weakening thru the 24.High pressure will build E to near 37N/58W with a ridge SE to 20N/50W tomorrow morning. The high will move SE to near 30N/43W with a ridge S to 15N by the 23.

Conclusion:

Zone NN: Conditions will remain generally benign across much of this zone thru the forecast period. This will be due to weak pressure gradients as the zone remains south of the aforementioned front and any disturbed weather.Light/moderate E and N-NW swell (mixing with some E-SE sets at times, especially in the S-SE part of the zone) are expected thru the 23.

Zones OO and PP: Similar to the above, these zones will also remain south of the aforementioned front and lingering trough thru the next few days, with ridging not quite reaching the zones yet thru the forecast period. E-NE will remain generally light to moderate, and swell mainly coming from the N-NW (and moderate to long in period).

Zone II: As the previously mentioned front moves into this zone today and into early tomorrow, this will result in a contrast of conditions (dependent on which part of the zone one is located in). Across the N art of the zone, winds will be more SW-S, whereas winds will tend to be more SE on the S part of the zone. Thru the rest of the 22 and into the 23, winds will become more dominantly SE (though remaining generally gentle/light across much of the zone) as the front weakens.

Zone JJ: The aforementioned front will move from NW to SE across this zone thru today, then stalling and gradually weakening thru tomorrow as a trough of low pressure lingers. This will result in a sharp gradient in expected winds across the area. Behind the front/on the N side of the trough (in more N portions of the zone), NE will be on the higher end of forecast below due to a strong interaction with building ridging, whereas S areas will see winds on the lower end of forecast below. This trend will continue thru the 22/early 23 as the trough moves Wacross the N part of the zone before E-SE take over later on the 23.

T=21NOV 0600 UTC

NN FORECAST:

 T+0:ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NW/MIXED/SE 3-6FT CLDY. E @ 0.3KTS.

 T+12:ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NW/MIXED/SE 3-6FT CLEAR. SSE @ 0.2KTS.

 T+24: ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NW/MIXED/E 3-6FT CLDY. S @ 0.2KTS.

 T+36: NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NW/MIXED/E 3-6FT MSTLY CLDY. E @ 0.1KTS.

 T+48: NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS N-NW/MIXED/E 3-6FT MSTLY CLDY. SSE @ 0.3KTS.

OO FORECAST:

 T+0:ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 2-5FT CLDY. S @ 0.2KTS.

 T+12:ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 2-5FT PARTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. W @ 0.3KTS.

 T+24: ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT PARTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. NNW @ 0.3KTS.

 T+36: ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT PARTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. E @ 0.3KTS.

 T+48: ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT PARTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. SW @ 0.1KTS.

PP FORECAST:

 T+0:NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 2-5FT MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. S @ 0.1KTS.

 T+12:NE-E(45 - 90) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT CLEAR. E @ 0.3KTS.

 T+24: NE-E(45 - 90) 09-14KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT CLEAR. ENE @ 0.4KTS.

 T+36: ENE-ESE(68 - 113) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT CLEAR. ESE @ 0.3KTS.

 T+48: NE-E(45 - 90) 08-13KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NNE-NNW 3-6FT PARTLY CLDY. NE @ 0.1KTS.

II FORECAST:

 T+0:SE-S/VARY/SW(135 - 180) 06-11KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NW-N 3-6FT CLEAR. SSE @ 0.2KTS.

 T+12:ESE-SSE(113 - 158) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NW-N 4-7FT PARTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS. SE @ 0.1KTS.

 T+24: ESE-SSE(113 - 158) 07-12KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NW-N 4-7FT MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. SSW / WEAKKTS.

 T+36: E-SE(90 - 135) 06-11KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NW-N 3-6FT PARTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. ESE @ 0.1KTS.

 T+48: E-SE/VARY/W(90 - 135) 05-10KTS. SEAS 1-2 SWELLS NW-N 3-6FT PARTLY CLDY. SHWRS*. SSW @ 0.1KTS.

JJ FORECAST:

 T+0:SW-NW-NE(225 - 45) 12-17 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 5-8FT PARTLY CLDY. SCATTERED SHWRS*.S @ 0.2KTS.

 T+12:N-NE(0 - 45) 15-20 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-8FT PARTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. NNE @ 0.2KTS.

 T+24: N-NE/VARY/SE(0 - 45) 13-18 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS N-NE 5-8FT MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*.ESE @ 0.4KTS.

 T+36: NE-E/VARY/SE(45 - 90) 13-18 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 3-4 SWELLS NNE-NNW 5-8FT MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. S @ 0.4KTS.

 T+48: E-SE(90 - 135) 12-17 GUSTS 22KTS. SEAS 2-3 SWELLS NNE-NNW 5-8FT PARTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS*. SW @ 0.1KTS.