ARC Weather Forecast 11/12/2016

Synopsis: A weak front extends from just west of the Azores SW to approximately 25N/60W. This will drift SE through today, dissipating tonight.

High pressure along the US East Coast will move offshore today, passing north of Bermuda through tonight, continuing steadily to SW of the Azores by late 13/12.

Ridging is moderately strong near and south of 20N across the waters from 40W to the Caribbean Sea, with weaker/broader ridging from 20N to 25N. As the above mentioned high passes well north of the region, this will strengthen the ridging from late today through tomorrow, with the ridging beginning to weaken nearer to the Caribbean Sea by late 13/12.

Conclusion: Over the next 2-3 days as the ridging strengthens across the ARC Zones, ENE trades will strengthen with gusts approaching near gale force at times in and around the Leeward Islands, with E-NE swell building from west to east across the forecast zones below. Highest winds and swell will be located along Zones LL, RR, QQ, and KK, with similar higher conditions across the western zones PP and JJ. Note that highest overall winds will be located between the Leeward Islands due to funnelling between the islands, with the possibility of gust approaching gale force outside of squalls, and potentially higher winds and seas within squalls as the front moves eastwards.

T = 11 Dec 0600 UTC

PP:
T+0: WINDS NE-E 16-21 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT E 0.6KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT SE 1.1KTS.
T+24: WINDS NE-E 17-22 GUSTS 24KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT E 0.3KTS.
T+36: WINDS NE-E 19-24 GUSTS 26KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ESE 0.9KTS.
T+48: WINDS ENE-NNE 18-23 GUSTS 26KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT E 0.7KTS.

JJ:
T+0: WINDS NE-E 16-21 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT NNE 0.3KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ENE 0.7KTS.
T+24: WINDS NE-E 17-22 GUSTS 25KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT NE 0.4KTS.
T+36: WINDS ENE-NNE 20-25KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT NE 0.5KTS.
T+48: WINDS NE-E 20-25KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ENE 0.6KTS.

KK:
T+0: WINDS NE-E 18-23 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (7SEC). SKIES CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT N 0.4KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 18-23 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ESE 0.1KTS.
T+24: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 5-6 SWELLS NE-E 8-10FT (7SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT N 0.4KTS.
T+36: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 5-6 SWELLS NE-E 8-11FT (7SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT E 0.2KTS.
T+48: WINDS NE-E 22-27 GUSTS 30KTS. SEAS 5-6 SWELLS NE-E 9-11FT (7SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT NNE 0.3KTS.

QQ:
T+0: WINDS NE-E 18-23 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (7SEC). SKIES CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ESE 0.4KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 18-23 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (7SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT SE 0.8KTS.
T+24: WINDS NE-E 17-22 GUSTS 26KTS. SEAS 3-5 SWELLS NE-E 7-9FT (7SEC). SKIES MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT SSE 0.3KTS.
T+36: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-E 8-10FT (7SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. SCATTERED SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ESE 0.6KTS.
T+48: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS NE-E 9-11FT (7SEC). SKIES MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT SE 0.3KTS.

RR:
T+0: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS ENE-ESE 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT E 0.9KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 19-24 GUSTS 27KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS E-NE 8-10FT (7SEC). SKIES MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ESE 1.1KTS.
T+24: WINDS NE-E 19-24 GUSTS 26KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS E-NE 8-11FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ESE 0.8KTS.
T+36: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS E-NE 9-11FT (8SEC). SKIES CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ESE 1.3KTS.
T+48: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 28KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS E-NE 9-11FT (8SEC). SKIES MSTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT ESE 0.9KTS.

LL:
T+0: WINDS NE-E 19-24 GUSTS 26KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS ENE-ESE 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT NNW 0.6KTS.
T+12: WINDS NE-E 18-23 GUSTS 26KTS. SEAS 4-5 SWELLS ENE-ESE 7-9FT (6SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENT NNE 0.3KTS.
T+24: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 30KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS ENE-ESE 9-11FT (7SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS* CURRENTS FROM NNW 0.6KTS.
T+36: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 30KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS ENE-ESE 10-11FT (7SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS*CURRENTS FROM NE 0.4KTS.
T+48: WINDS NE-E 20-25 GUSTS 30KTS. SEAS 4-6 SWELLS ENE-ESE 10-11FT (8SEC). SKIES PRTLY CLDY. ISLTD SHWRS/SQUALLS* CURRENTS FROM NNW 0.5KTS.
* WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN SQUALLS