World ARC Weather - Leg 16

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
The tropical convergence zone currently lies from 12:00S 72:00E to 14:00S 80:00E to 14:00S 85:00E to 13:00S 90:00E. This convergence zone should be pushed towards the northwest away from the fleet by the more dominant ESE trade wind flow during the next 24 hours, after which time it should cease to have any effects on the fleet. These trade winds are being produced by a high pressure system with a central pressure near 1034hPa centred near 33S 72E that will stay close to that location for the next few days. This will leave the fleet in a quite extensive strong ESE trade wind flow for the next 3 days or more. The trade winds should become relatively uniform across the fleet during the next 24 hours and remain relatively steady for three days or more, slowly oscillating through stronger then weaker phases. There should not be very much shower activity in these strong trade winds. As the trade winds are blowing over a very great expanse of ocean the ESE trade wind swell will be fully developed.

Weather
Showers and thunderstorms for those closest to the convergence zone largely clearing to the northwest during the next 12 hours. Then only very well separated transient showers with fine weather for a majority of the time.

Saturday 2nd
SE to ESE winds mostly in the 23/28 knot range with small patches to near 30 knots. Wind speeds easing back to 20/25 knots east of 90E and to 18/23 knots east of 93E.

Sunday 3rd
ESE to SE winds generally in the 23/28 knot range extending across all areas. A slow oscillation in the wind speeds can be expected, briefly peaking near 30 knots at the top of the cycle. Lead yachts are likely to notice a slight decline in wind speeds as the day progresses.

Monday 4th
ESE winds mostly 22/27 knots with a slow decline expected for the lead yachts. Winds should continue to oscillate through the full range of wind speeds.