The weather forecasting period for the current Rally has now ended.

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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N/50W WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING SW'WARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FRONT WILL MOVE E'WARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE 20TH. RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS S'WARD TOWARDS 5N. A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE E'RN U.S. ALSO EXTENDS SE'WARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG N'RN SOUTH AMERICA. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NEST FEW DAYS.

EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC W'WARD ALONG THE N'RN BRAZIL COASTLINE. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 21ST BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE 19TH. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER N'RN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE 21ST. SCATTERED SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS N'RN BRAZIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A THERMAL TROUGH OF OVER PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BRAZIL WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC CURRENTLY EXTENDS S'WARD TO NEAR 10N. AS THIS RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE THERMAL LOW OVER BRAZIL IT WILL ENHANCE THE E=NE'LY WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALL RACE GRIDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS CURRENTLY EXTEND ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM AFRICA TO SOUTH AMERICA. THESE SQUALLS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND ARE DISORGANIZED. THESE SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE CHARLIE GRID AND TO UPDATE ON NUMEROUS SQUALLS, WHICH NOW COVER MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 06N AND FROM 52W E'WARD THROUGH THE CENTRALATLANTIC, AND WILL MOVE W'WARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS/SQUALLS FROM OFFSHORE/NORTH OF FORTALEZA, BRAZIL N'WARD TO THE EQUATOR AND W'WARD TO OFFSHORE/NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER. SQUALLS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ, AND WILL DISPLAY A DIURNAL VARIATION OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, TENDING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NE'RN COAST OF BRAZIL THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 55W E'WARD TO 10E, BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH AND 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. THIS TROUGH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING N'WARD. SHOWERS/SQUALLS LOCATED ALONG THE NE'RN BRAZILIAN COAST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND ARE DISORGANIZED. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE BROADENING N'WARD TO NEAR 8N. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON THE 14TH AS A LOW MOVES SE'WARD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, OUTSIDE SQUALLS, ALONG NE'RN BRAZIL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO THE BROAD THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILD N'WARD IT WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THE WINDS STARTING ON THE 12TH.

AN EQUATORIAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 60W E'WARD TO 00W BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. THIS TROUGH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY BUILDING N'WARD THROUGH THE 12TH. BY THE MORNING OF THE 13TH THIS TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 63W E'WARD TO 10W, BETWEEN 08S AND 20N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/SQUALLS LOCATED WITHIN THIS TROUGH ARE DISORGANIZED. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

IN CONCLUSION: THE BROAD EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT CONDITIONS ALONG THE NE'RN BRAZILIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

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PREPARED BY WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 38S/15W AND WILL MOVE ESE'WARD TO NEAR 43S/13E BY THE MORNING OF THE 09TH. A BROAD ASSOCIATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NW'WARD TO NEAR 10S/40W. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 08TH AND WILL THEN WEAKEN AND RETREAT SE'WARD THROUGH THE 09TH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E'WARD.

PREPARED BY WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42S/27W NW'WARD OVER E'RN BRAZIL. THIS RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BEFORE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING STARTING ON THE 07TH AS A SECOND HIGH MOVES E'WARD OVER THE E'RN SOUTH ATLANTIC. ON THE 08TH THIS HIGH WILL "MERGE" WITH THE FIRST HIGH RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE THAT WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 45W E'WARD TO 10E, BETWEEN 12S AND 50S BY 8/18Z. BY THE MORNING OF THE 09TH A LOW WILL HAVE MOVE SE'WARD OVER SE'RN BRAZIL AND WILL BE CENTERED NEAR 32S/52W. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE'WARD WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A GALE OFFSHORE E'RN URUGUAY BY EVENING OF THE 09TH. ON THE 10TH THIS GALE WILL MOVE SSE'WARD TO NEAR 36S/48W. AS THIS OCCURS THE RIDGING OVER E'RN BRAZIL WILL WEAKEN.

PREPARED BY WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR 37S/17W NW'WARD TO OVER E'RN BRAZIL. THIS RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24-28 HOURS, BEFORE STRENGTHENING ON THE 05TH AS A SECOND HIGH MOVES E'WARD, ALONG 40S, THROUGH THE 07TH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER E'RN BRAZIL THROUGH THE 08TH.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 35S/30W WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E'WARD THROUGH THE 04TH AND WILL REMAIN BROAD AND WEAK DURING THAT TIME. AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 06E-43W AND AS FAR NORTH AS 10S.

CONCLUSION: THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. EXPECT LIGHT E-SE'LY TRADES ACROSS BOTH DELTA AND ECHO GRID BOXES DURING THAT TIME.

PREPARED WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A LARGE AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30S/11W, AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE HIGH CENTER WNW'WARD TO ALONG THE SE'RN BRAZILIAN COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ESE'WARD TO NEAR 35S/05E,WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 44S/10E BY THE 01ST. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.

CONCLUSION: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. LIGHT ESE'LY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT GRID BOXES DELTA AND ECHO AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ESE'WARD THROUGH THE 01ST. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER AREA THROUGH THE 02ND.

PREPARED BY WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY COVERS THE AREA FROM 40W E'WARD TO 10E, BETWEEN 10S AND 37S. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT SE'WARD WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A GALE NEAR URUGUAY MOVES E'WARD ALONG 45S . WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE W'RN SOUTH ATLANTIC THROUGH 02/01ST.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 35S/15W AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC, EXTENDING FROM CAPE TOWN W'WARD TO BUENOS AIRES AND EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS 10S. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE MORNING OF THE 28TH WHEN IT WILL MOVE SE'WARD TO NEAR 40S/28E BY THE MORNING OF THE 29TH. A WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD NEAR 30S/23W BY THE MORNING OF THE 29TH.

PREPARED BY WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A EQUATORIAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR S'WARD TO 12S FROM THE W'RN COAST OF AFRICA TO 24W. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT E'WARD THROUGH THE 25TH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 55W E'WARD TO 10E, BETWEEN 40S AND 15S. THIS RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ON THE 25TH THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILD N'WARD. BY THE MORNING OF THE 27TH THIS RIDGE WILL COVER THE ARE FROM 42W E'WARD TO 10E, BETWEEN 43S AND 12S.

PREPARED BY WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35S/5W WILL MOVE ESE'WARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH COVERS THE AREA FROM 40W E'WARD TO 10E, BETWEEN 44S AND 10S. THIS RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE 23RD. BY THE EVENING OF THE 24TH A SECOND HIGH WILL FORM NEAR 35S/32W. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE E'WARD STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE 26TH.

PREPARED BY WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 38S/10W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 21ST. THIS HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT E'WARD TO NEAR 37S/04W THROUGH THE 24TH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COVERING AN AREA FROM EAST OF PORT ELIZABETH W'WARD TO URUGUAY AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS 10S.

PREPARED: WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 26S/09W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING OF THE 19TH WHEN IT MERGES WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE NEAR 40S/13W. AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL EXTEND E'WARD FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO CAPE TOWN. THIS RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK, BUT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SECOND HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION THOUGH THE 22ND WHILE STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.

PREPARED  BY: WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A GALE LOCATED NEAR 52S/23E NW'WARD TO 36S/10E AND WILL MOVE E'WARD ALONG THE S'RN TIP OF SOUTH AFRICA AND WILL BE EAST OF DURBAN BY THE MORNING OF THE 17TH.

PREPARED BY: WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER S'RN AFRICA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THIS 17TH WHILE REMAINING SEMI STATIONARY OVER S'RN AFRICA. ON THE 18TH THIS TROUGH WILL BEING TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT W'WARD.

PREPARED BY: WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SW'RN AFRICA WILL BROADEN E'WARD OVER ALL OF S'RN AFRICA THROUGH THE 14TH. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER S'RN AFRICA THROUGH THE 16TH WHILE REMAINING SEMI STATIONARY.

PREPARED BY WEATHER ROUTING INC. (WRI)

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS LOCATED NEAR 35S/10W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE 14TH. AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS E'WARD ACROSS SOUTH AFRICA JUST EAST OF DURBAN, THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE 14TH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RIDGES STRENGTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER AN AREA FROM DURBAN W'WARD TO 35W AND 45S N'WARD TO 18S.

Prepared by: Weather Routing INC. (WRI)

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD E'WARD TO W'RN SOUTH AFRICA FROM THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35S/23W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE E'WARD TO 35S/05E THROUGH THE 11TH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SOUTH AND SW'RN COAST OF AFRICA ON THE 10TH. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH AFRICA THROUGH THE 12TH.

To view the sea areas of the World ARC weather please click   >>FULL DETAILS

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
The weather into Richards Bay will be dominated in the short term by the passage of a trough during the next few hours. The trough lies from near Richards Bay to 30:00S 32:00E at 21UTC and is expected to move to 27:00S 32:45E to 30:00S 34:30E by 12UTC Tuesday, dissipating after that time. The trough separates gale force NNE winds from a SSW change that has around 4 hours from the time of the initial wind direction change to when a period of strong southerly winds moves through.

A developing trough lies north to south through central South Africa at the moment with a cold front approaching from the southwest that should cause the trough to move off the east coast tonight with a low forming to the south of Richards Bay tonight. The NE winds off the Richards Bay coastline are likely to strengthen with NNE winds reaching gale force south of 28:30S starting around 12UTC today. The latest information indicates the winds north of 28S and east of 34E should not exceed 25 knots and should remain manageable throughout the passage of this weather system. The gale force NNE winds should hold until around midnight Richards Bay time when a strong SSW change is expected to arrive. It appears there will be around 3-4 hours starting around midnight and lasting til close to 4AM Tuesday spanning the wind change period when wind speeds are likely to temporarily weaken to 20 knots and briefly less.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
The trough that passed through last night now lies (03UTC) from 26:00S 35:10E to 29:00S 38:45E and it should lie 26:00S 35:10E (it will stall here) to 28:45S 40:00E by 12UTC. After this time it will cease to be a significant feature as it is currently rapidly weakening. Winds to the east of the through south of the Mozambique Channel are shifting south to SSE but are only light to moderate. West of the trough fresh se winds are slowly easing with winds over the region from the eastern edge of the Agulhas Current across to Richards Bay expected to shift from a weak SSE through east and tend moderate ENE this evening. It is suitable to approach Richards Bay for the remainder of today through until between 03-06UTC Monday, after which time the wind strengths are likely to be too great.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
A low has formed off the south east coast of Africa centred near 31:20S 32:25E with a trough extending northwards to Richards Bay. This trough should move to lie 25:00S 33:50E to 30:00S 34:45E by 00UTC Friday and to 25:00S 34:30E to 31:00S 35:00E by 12UTC Friday. The trough should then weaken and retreat westwards back to the eastern coast of South Africa by Saturday 00UTC. Winds to the east of this trough over the western half of the Mozambique Channel are expected to be primarily a fresh NNE breeze. West of the trough light and variable winds are expected.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
A high pressure system with central pressure near 1020hPa is centred near 33S 42E and should move to the south of the fleet during the next 24 hours. It extends a weak ridge off the east coast of Madagascar at the moment. The ridge is producing light to moderate southerly breezes over the fleet that should quickly shift SE then east to ENE during the next 24 hours, freshening to the south and southeast of Madagascar. A region of increased wind speeds is expected to develop over the region to the south through southeast of Madagascar extending offshore out to 150nm, after which time the speed declines.

Weather situation

A high pressure system is centred in the central southern Indian Ocean with another high extending a ridge south of South Africa. Between these two systems lies a double trough system with a low pressure system over the island of Madagascar and a trough with a weak low near 28S 37E at 06UTC today. The low over Madagascar is expected to move south eastwards tomorrow and is expected to be near 26:30S 47:20E by 1200UTC Saturday. After this time this low should drift eastwards and weaken by the time it reaches 49E on Sunday night. The main effect of this trough will be to weaken the winds between Madagascar and Reunion Island for the first 3 days of the trip. After this time a new ridge should move well south of Madagascar and establish a freshening southeasterly then easterly wind regime along the route to the south of Madagascar.

Marine  Forecast from Meteo Maritius for the route MAURITIUS-REUNION valid from SATURDAY 23 OCTOBER 2010 until SUNDAY 24 OCTOBER 2010 issued FRIDAY 22 OCTOBER 2010

WEATHER: Partly Cloudy

WIND: Easterly 13-16 knots

SEA: Moderate wave height 1.5 to 2.0 metres

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
A weakening tropical low is centred near 16:00S 65:30E with a trough to 22:30S 62:00E. A weak ridge lies across the Mauritius area. The low should gradually move towards the west north west during the next 48 hours with the trough weakening further, while the ridge moves southwards, bringing a return of moderate SE trade winds to the final stage of the route to Mauritius during the next 36 to 48 hours. Slightly increased shower activity is continuing near the trough line but this activity should remain to the east and north of the main part of the fleet through the remainder of this leg.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
A 1036hPa high is centred near 38S 57E and is moving steadily eastwards o the south of the fleet. A tropical low currently centred near 14S 78E is moving westwards and is expected to be near 15S 67E by 12UTC Saturday. It should then move to 16S 64E by 12UTC Sunday. Fortunately the area of squally showers and thunderstorms will remain to the south through east of the low centre and hence not affect the main fleet for the remainder of the trip to Mauritius. Only mid range SE trade winds are expected across the waters the fleet will be crossing during the next three days, gradually shifting southerly. 

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
The ridge to the south of the fleet is currently weakening as a southern frontal system moves past. This will be replaced by a new relatively intense high pressure system which should move to the south of Mauritius during Friday. This is likely to strengthen the SE trade winds for the second half of the forecast period. Further to the east a tropical low centred near 12S 85E is intensifying and moving westwards, expected to be near 14S 77E by 12UTC Friday. A gradual increase in shower activity could affect the fleet as this system tracks westwards although the strong winds to its south should remain to the east of the main fleet.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
The weather for the fleet should continue to be dominated by a fresh to strong ESE trade wind flow during the next 3 days, weakening gradually, particularly over the region west of 70E through to Mauritius where there is a southern frontal system eroding the ridge. These trade winds are being maintained by a high pressure system with an east - west oriented ridge that now has a central pressure near 1032hPa and is centred near 32S 78E that will slowly move eastwards during the forecast period. A weak trough is expected to form near Mauritius during Tuesday but this should have little influence on the weather experienced by the fleet.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
The tropical convergence zone currently lies from 12:00S 72:00E to 14:00S 80:00E to 14:00S 85:00E to 13:00S 90:00E. This convergence zone should be pushed towards the northwest away from the fleet by the more dominant ESE trade wind flow during the next 24 hours, after which time it should cease to have any effects on the fleet. These trade winds are being produced by a high pressure system with a central pressure near 1034hPa centred near 33S 72E that will stay close to that location for the next few days.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
The tropical convergence zone now lies from 12:00S 80:00E to 16:00S 85:00E to 16:00S 92:00E to 12:00S 94:00E with a weakening low near 15S 86E. This convergence line should lie along a line from 14:00S 80:00E to 15:30S 87:00E to 15:30S 89:00E to 12:00S 91:00E by 12UTC on Friday. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to continue along and to the north of this convergence zone with a rain band extending away to the southeast from the southernmost edge of this area. The strong ESE trade wind regime to the south of the convergence zone continues to be well established and these strong trade winds are likely to continue throughout the period through to Saturday and beyond. To minimise the effects of these trade winds would require getting down to near 20S as they are likely to cover a large area of the Indian Ocean through the forecast period.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
Today's latest satellite imagery confirms the tropics to the north and northwest of Cocos Islands are much more active than normal for this time of the year. The convergence line containing scattered thunderstorm activity is slowly moving southwards and is now near 10:00S at the moment in the region west of Cocos Island. The predictions are for this convergence line to shift south to around 14S by Tuesday afternoon in the region where the fleet is likely to be sailing. Although poorly defined at the moment a couple of tropical lows still appear likely to form along this convergent line.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation

The weather through to Cocos Islands is expected to be dominated by fresh to locally strong ESE trade winds over the next three days. A convergence zone feeding into a trough located just to the west of Cocos is producing isolated showers and thunderstorms over waters to the west of 99E at the moment. However the building trade winds should force this convergence zone to the west of Cocos during the next 18 hours and lead to a marked reduction in shower activity through to the islands within the trade wind regime. Once the trade winds have pushed across all the fleet the winds should remain relatively steady, although cycling gradually through weaker and stronger phases.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
Over the next three days the weather for most of the fleet should be dominated by trade winds originating from a strong high pressure system centred thousands of kilometres away south of Western Australia. However a poorly defined tropical low centred near 11S 90E extends a trough eastwards over Cocos Island then northeast towards the western end of Java. This region is likely to produce scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, likely to impact upon lead yachts but only once they get to the west of 100E which is a few days away. Further eastwards only transient passing shower activity is expected, embedded in the trade wind airflow, with the frequency of the showers likely to increase on Saturday.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
A tropical convergence zone extends from near 07:30S 108:00E to a weak tropical low near Christmas Island then westwards to 10:30S 96:00E with the tropical low mentioned in the pre-departure briefing now near 08:30S 90:00E. This convergence zone should shift approximately 60nm towards the northwest during the next 12 hours. After this time it should return to a west to east oriented line close to 10:00S by midday Wednesday. Stronger ESE trade winds are to be found to the south and, to a much lesser extent, the east of this convergence zone with lighter and changeable winds to the north and west of it. Increased numbers of thunderstorms are to be found within around 60nm of this zone.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
A weak tropical low centred to the northwest of Cocos Island has a tropical convergence line extending from it towards the east southeast – from 9:00S 98:00E to 12:00S 110:00E. This low is likely to gradually develop over the next few days and should be the dominant weather feature for this leg of the World ARC. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue to be quite active along this convergence line for the next 4 to 5 days. The convergence zone separates weaker and more erratic ESE trade winds to the north from fresher trade winds to the south. In general a route slightly south of the direct route to Cocos will provide winds typically 2 knots stronger than for the direct route once a day out of Bali.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation (West of 122:30E)
The weather during the next few days is expected to transition from one with predominantly fine conditions to one with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity. There is a weak ridge of high pressure to the south of the route to Bali. Only a moderate south easterly trade wind regime is expected during the period of this forecast.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation (West of 125E)
A high over the eastern Indian Ocean is extending a ridge over Western Australia. There is a weak heat trough over the north of WA and as a result of this light to moderate SSE to SE trade winds are expected along the route to Bali over the next few days. The weather should be predominantly fine with only very isolated showers are possible near the islands. Fine apart from very isolated showers near the Indonesian Islands.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
A low over central Australia extends a trough into the Bonaparte Gulf. This is producing some instability in the region from Darwin across the Arafura Sea to Timor. Isolated showers with one or two thunderstorms are expected across this region for the next 24 hours. For the remainder of today the winds are likely to be somewhat unsteady. Then the winds are forecast to settle down to a light to moderate SSE to SE trade wind airflow. Generally fine weather is expected through to Bali, although very isolated showers are possible near the islands.

Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Weather situation
An upper level trough linked to a low pressure system that is expected to develop over central Australia during Wednesday and Thursday is expected to increase the general instability in the Arafura Sea during the first 36 hours of this leg of the World ARC. As a result shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop in this region, although the departure of the fleet is likely to occur just early enough to outpace this development. Winds will tend to be somewhat changeable for the first 36 hours then they should settle down for the remainder of the trip to Bali. After the first 36 hours the trip to Bali should be in quite benign weather conditions controlled by a relatively weak SE trade wind airflow.

The weather for the remainder of the trip to Darwin is likely to be under the influence of a moderate high centred over the east of Australia with a weak trough forming to the west of Darwin. This should produce fresh ESE winds off the northern coastline of the Northern Territory but these trade winds should weaken over the final run past Melville Island and in to Darwin Harbour where coastal sea breeze effects are likely to dominate the winds through the afternoon period.

The weather for the next few days should be quite good with a weak trough over the Darwin region and a moderate high pressure system moving across southern parts of Australia. Mid-range east to ESE trade winds, cycling through significant fresher then weaker cycles over approximately 24 hour periods should continue for the next few days. The trough development to the west is likely to lead to the development of some showers from Saturday evening onwards off the Northern Territory coastline.

Weather situation
The weather for the start of this leg should be controlled by a ridge of high pressure that extends up the Queensland east coast from a moderate strength high centred over the south eastern Coral Sea coupled with a poorly formed low centred over the south of New Guinea. This should initially produce fresh ESE trade winds in the Thursday Island and adjacent area. However the top part of Cape York Peninsula produces a marked wind shadow for the sector from due west of Thursday Island around to the SSW so if you sail directly west through WSW towards Darwin you are likely to encounter this region. An initial course along 280 degrees true or further to the north for the first 100km should avoid the greatest impacts of this wind shadow.

Weather situation

A strong high pressure system centred over the east of the Great Australia Bight extends a ridge over the north of the Tasman Sea. This is producing increasing SE trade winds over the route from the rear of the fleet through to Mackay. With a tropical convergent line forming over the north of the Coral Sea, the result should be quite persistent fresh to strong SE then ESE trade winds throughout the next 3 days. Weatherwise isolated, disorganised trade wind shower activity is expected, particularly near the Great Barrier Reef, with long fine spells between the passing showers.

A moderate strength high pressure system is moving eastwards across the north of the Tasman Sea. This should be replaced by a low and frontal system Monday night through Tuesday. As a result of this the trade winds should be at their peak today then are likely to progressively moderate during Monday and Tuesday morning. The passage of the top end of the trough line is likely to see the lead yachts experience a freshening SE change. However there is not expected to be much shower activity on the trough and generally the conditions for this passage should remain good.

A deep low pressure system is moving across the eastern Tasman Sea and this has weakened the ESE trade winds along the route towards Mackay. A moderate strength high currently centred over the inland southeast of Australia is forecast to move over the northern parts of the Tasman Sea during Saturday. The ESE trade winds should be at their weakest around sunrise then they should gradually start to increase in strength during this afternoon and particularly on Saturday. They should be at their strongest on Sunday morning. The weather itself continues to be quite benign with only passing trade wind showers about and long fine breaks between them.

The passage of a low pressure system into the Tasman Sea is expected to weaken the ESE trade winds for the first 24 hours of the crossing from Porto Santo to Mackay, although the low itself will remain well this route. Then a moderate strength high is forecast to move over eastern Australia during Friday and over the northern Tasman Sea during Saturday. As a result of this the ESE trade winds should gradually start to increase in strength during Friday afternoon and particularly on Saturday and Sunday. The weather itself should be quite benign with only passing trade wind showers about and long fine breaks between them.

The trade winds are expected to be entering a dying phase for the start of the coming leg from Musket Cove to Tanna. The development of a strong low pressure system to the north of the North Island of New Zealand is expected to significantly weaken the trade wind flow on Sunday afternoon and night. The remains of a frontal line feeding into this low are expected to move across the route during Monday morning with a gusty south westerly change expected with the change. The southerly winds forming behind the change should then become established later Monday and through Tuesday, although they should only reach moderate strength.

The weather between Nuie and Tonga should continue to be benign under the influence of a weak ridge to the south of the islands through to Sunday. A weak ridge is being maintained to the south of the route between the islands due to the presence of a very intense low in the central Tasman Sea with an extensive cloud band feeding into it but remaining to the west of Tonga, which is a very good thing. The minor trade wind surge mentioned in the previous forecast is now looking weaker, although it should still develop this evening.
Some minor trough lines are likely to develop during Sunday which are likely to make the wind directions more variable and could produce a shower or two but they should not be of any concern.

Conditions between Niue and Tonga should continue to be benign under the influence of a weak ridge to the south of the islands. Although there is a quite large low and trough to the northwest of Fiji that is producing extensive cloud over the Niue to Tonga route, it is expected to be relatively inactive along this route. The only direct impact is through the formation of a minor trough line that extends from 17:30S 175:00W to 20:00S 171:00W at the moment which is slightly disturbing the trade wind flow with a broken line of showers in its vicinity. This feature should dissipate within the next 12 hours. In general moderate east to EE trade winds can therefore be expected along this route through to Friday. A minor SE trade wind surge is likely to move over the route during the middle of the day on Friday.

Weather situation
A persistent ridge is expected to lie to the south of Nuie and Tonga for the next three days. This is expected to maintain a moderate east to east southeast trade wind regime across the route between the Niue and Tonga through to Wednesday and beyond. This trade wind regime is expected to be relatively free of trough lines with only relatively minor trade wind pulses expected. It should produce good sailing conditions between the two islands throughout the forecast period.

The remains of a weakening trough lies from 15S 175W to near Niue then it turns towards the southeast. Isolated thunderstorm activity lingers along this trough. However it is expected to dissipate during the next 6 to 12 hours. In general the ESE trade wind regime which spans the route is in a relatively moderate phase, weakest between Niuee and Tonga to the west of the trough line. As the trough line dissipates the ESE to SE trade winds should gradually build across the region between Nuie and Tonga. Once the trade winds have re-established themselves across the entire route, the weather should be confined to isolated showers.

A weakening trough with a cloud band around 150nm wide containing scattered showers with a couple of clusters of thunderstorms lies from 15S 177W to 20S 167W and is moving towards the east at around 10 knots. This cloud band is weakening but some pockets of squally winds are possible in the regions east and southeast of the thunderstorms that lie just ahead of the wind change.

Winds shift from a Moderate NE direction near Suwarrow to a freshening northerly south of 15S with winds tending NW for a few hours ahead of the wind change. The wind change is a weak southwest then southerly that should gradually shift SSE.

A complex low and trough system is producing extensive rain and thunderstorm activity in a broad band between 170W and 178W in the latitude band between 13S and 20S. This system is expected to track eastwards during the next 48 hours with the leading edge of the heavier shower activity reaching Nuie close to 00UTC Tuesday. The rear edge of the band should clear Nuie around 15 hours later. The band of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms is likely to be around 180nm wide at this time. The strongest part of this system is expected to shift south of Nuie by the time the lead yachts approach the cloud band.

A double set of convergence lines looks likely to form in the trade winds, particularly near Suwarrow along 12S-13S west of 160W and also near 14:30S to 15:30S on the leg from Suwarrow to Nuie. The other convergence line appears likely to remain just to the north of Suwarrow. On the southern side of these convergence lines the winds are likely to be stronger than elsewhere in the trade wind flow with winds reaching 20/25 knots within 90nm on the southern side. The convergence lines themselves are likely to be showery bands with the possibility for a thunderstorm or two, which could produce local strong squalls. Neither of the lines are expected to develop and appear likely to weaken markedly on Saturday afternoon. This should be accompanied by a general decline in the strength of the trade winds. Overall apart for the squalls on the convergence lines the conditions along the route of this leg appear fairly benign.

The trade winds surge has moved just north of Suwarrow and is producing a band of showers with a couple of thunderstorms between 10S and 13S at the moment. These are likely to slowly shift towards the northwest during the next 24 hours. The other major weather systems in the South Pacific are well away from this leg with a low weakening near 20S 145W and another developing to the southwest of Tonga. This leaves the route from Bora Bora to Suwarrow and down to Nuie under a mid range trade wind regime at the current time. This are expected to remain relatively benign through the next 60 hours. A minor secondary of SE to ESE trade winds is expected to move across the fleet within the first 12-18 hours after departure. Then mid range trade winds should become established over the Bora Bora to Suwarrow route, providing improving sailing conditions after a slow start.

The ESE trade wind surge has moved past its peak, although the first part of the fleet is currently under its strongest sector. Over the next 12 hours the trade winds are expected to subside. However the extent of the trade winds is quite large and so it will dominate the weather for the next 2-3 days. With the decline in the strength of the surge the weather should also improve with increasing fine breaks between the trade wind showers.

Mid range trade winds are then expected through to Suwarrow which should produce good sailing conditions through to the atoll

The weather for the first part of leg 7 - from Bora Bora to Suwarrow, is likely to be dominated by the passage of a fresh to strong and gusty ESE trade wind surge generated by a strong high pressure system of approximately 1038 hPa centred near 39S 145W. Although the latest satellite imagery shows good weather between Bora Bora and Suwarrow, ahead of and along the leading edge of the trade wind surge there are likely to be increasing showers and gusty wind conditions. These are to be expected over Bora Bora in the lead up morning before the race start and for the first few hours of the race. There is the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm embedded in this band of wet weather.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/28/1200 UTC to 03/30/1200 UTC Trade winds of light-moderate strength the next 2 days as the WARC fleet wraps up their Pacific crossing. Pressure gradient between 2 S Pacific highs and equatorial low pressure along ITCZ remains similar to slightly stronger than past few days. SE Pacific high (1022mb) centered near 28S/088W is stronger & building further NW. S central Pacific high (1030mb) moving E from 42S/130W is less blocked from strengthening gradient by surface trough from 12S/140W to 15S/130W to 18S/120W. Also, ITCZ currently between 02N-04N from 125W-145W moving S by 1-2 deg. This slight strengthening of gradient likely causes a small increase in trade wind strength next 2 days. Still mostly fine WX with greatest chance of shwrs & increased clds remaining to SW of Marquesas.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/26/1200 UTC to 03/28/1200 UTC Trade winds remain light next 24 hrs then slight strengthening possible. Similar large-scale WX picture to last FX with light pressure gradient between 2 S Pacific highs & equatorial low pressure. SE Pacific high pressure (1018mb) near 30S/085W is to weak & too far E to strengthen winds in region of WARC. South central Pacific high (1031mb) near 45S/135W is blocked from strengthening gradient by weak trough that is from 14S/140W to 15S/130W to 25S/120W. Gradient & winds may strengthen slightly in 24-48 hrs as ITCZ currently between 04N-06N from 125W-145W moves S by 1-2 deg & SE Pacific high begins strengthening. Generally fine WX with greatest chance of shwrs & increased clds to SW of Marquesas.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/24/1200 UTC to 03/26/1200 UTC Trade winds generally light with slight fluctuation during next 2 days. The pressure gradient between areas of high pressure in S Pacific and low pressure along ITCZ remains slack for several reasons. High (1018mb) meandering near 30S/085W is weak & too far E to strengthen pressure gradient in region of WARC fleet. High (1035mb) near 43S/143W is too far W & blocked from tightening gradient by trough from 30S/110W to 15S/140W to 12S/150W. Also, ITCZ has moved slightly N between 04N-05N from 120W-130W & between 03N-04N from 130W-140W. All these factors causing light trade winds. Trades look strongest first 12-18 hrs of FX then slight easing. Lightest wind generally S of 08-09S, especially W of 130W.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/24/1200 UTC to 03/26/1200 UTC Trade winds generally light with slight fluctuation during next 2 days. The pressure gradient between areas of high pressure in S Pacific and low pressure along ITCZ remains slack for several reasons. High (1018mb) meandering near 30S/085W is weak & too far E to strengthen pressure gradient in region of WARC fleet. High (1035mb) near 43S/143W is too far W & blocked from tightening gradient by trough from 30S/110W to 15S/140W to 12S/150W. Also, ITCZ has moved slightly N between 04N-05N from 120W-130W & between 03N-04N from 130W-140W. All these factors causing light trade winds. Trades look strongest first 12-18 hrs of FX then slight easing. Lightest wind generally S of 08-09S, especially W of 130W.  

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/22/1200 UTC to 03/24/1200 UTC Trade winds fluctuating next 2 days. Pressure gradient between S Pacific highs & equatorial low pressure near ITCZ varies along route of WARC because of S Pacific Low. ITCZ between 01N-03N from 110W-120W & between 00N-02N from 120W-140W, only slight 1-2 deg movement expected next 48 hrs. S Pacific highs meandering near 30S/095W (1022mb) & 40S/140W (1035mb). S Pacific low (1008mb) currently near 30S/120W at the base of a trough extending to 20S/135W & 15S/140W. Low moving SE to near 40S/100W in 24-26 hrs. Low weakens pressure gradient between ITCZ & S Pacific highs causing lower wind speeds along route of WARC next 24-36 hrs, especially W of 125W. Winds start increasing when low moves further SE. Trough also causing increased cld & threat of shwrs near Marquesas.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/20/1200 UTC to 03/22/1200 UTC Consistent trade wind sailing with no large fluctuations in speed or direction expected next 2 days. A few much appreciated reports from the fleet & satellite information tend to indicate wind speeds at the mid to high end of the fcast range the past 2 days. This occurred because the pressure gradient between S Pacific high pressure & equatorial low pressure increased slightly from the ITCZ moving S by 1-2 degrees to between 01N-03N from 110W-130W & between 02N-04N from 130W-140W. Little movement of ITCZ & S Pacific high (1033mb) remaining near 40S/100W next 2 days so only slight fluctuations in wind speed & direction. Surface trough of low pressure from 09S/160W to 15S/140W to 25S/137W weakening gradient and causing lowest wind speeds S of 09S from 125W-140W.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/18/1200 UTC to 03/20/1200 UTC Reliable Trade Wind sailing continues through the next 2 days. The pressure gradient between S Pacific high pressure & equatorial low pressure near ITCZ has fluctuated a little the past 24 hrs. This caused slight increase of wind speeds along much of WARC route, particularly from 115W-125W between 05S-09S. S Pacific high (1031mb) currently near 42S/120W & ITCZ between 05N-06N from 080W-100W & between 03N-05N from 100W-140W. Little movement of ITCZ next 2 days but high shifts slightly SE & this may ease wind speeds slightly in 36 hrs. Lighter trade winds W of about 127W as W/NW flank of high is weakened by remnants of Tropical Cyclone Tomas moving from 40S/160W to 55S/125W in 24 hrs & trough of low pressure from 10S/160W to 12S/145W to 20S/135W.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/16/1200 UTC to 03/18/1200 UTC Trade winds along much of WARC route remain steady next two days as pressure gradient stays fairly stable between S Pacific high pressure & equatorial low pressure near ITCZ. Large S Pacific high (1028mb) meanders near 38S/120W next 48 hours. High currently extends over S Pacific region between 080W-160W. However, W/NW flank of high is weakened in 36-48 hours as surface low pressure trough develops from 10S/150W to 30S/130W & Tropical Cyclone Tomas tracks from Fiji to near 35S/165W. This may ease trades very slightly along WARC route W of 130W. ITCZ is between 05N-06N from 080W-0110W &
between 03N-05N from 110W-140W. Little movement expected next 2 days so most organized & widespread shwr/tsm activity remaining N of WARC FX zones.  

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/14/1200 UTC to 03/16/1200 UTC The reliable trade winds continue because of a stable pressure gradient between S Pacific high pressure & equatorial low pressure near ITCZ. SE Pacific high pressure (1026mb) near 36S/097W dissipating in 36-48 hrs as central Pacific high becomes dominate center of circulation near 35S/120W. Trade winds may back (trend left) slightly in 36-48 hrs in response to further W center of high pressure. ITCZ is still displaced to N, between 05N-07N from 080W-095W & between 04N-06N from 095W-130W. ITCZ may move S by 1-2 deg next 2 days but most organized & widespread shwr/tsm acvity remaining N of WARC FX zones.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/12/1200 UTC to 03/14/1200 UTC Consistent trade winds next 2 days along the WARC route. Pressure gradient between S Pacific high pressure & equatorial low pressure near ITCZ only fluctuates slightly. SE Pacific high (1029mb) weakening near 36S/095W next 48 hrs as strong low pressure (978mb) moves E from 45S/128W. However, a central Pacific high moving E from 34S/148W reinforces the high pressure area to the S of the WARC route. ITCZ has moved further N & likely remains between 05N-07N from 080W-100W & 04N-06N from 100W-125W. This means most organized & widespread shwr/tsm activity is N of WARC FX zones.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 03/10/1200 UTC to 03/12/1200 UTC Trade winds persist but ease slightly along the route of the WARC. Pressure gradient between South Pacific high & equatorial low pressure along ITCZ is driving trade winds. South Pacific high (1026mb) currently near 34S/092W & ITCZ between 04N-05N from 080W-100W & 03N-04N from 100W-120W. ITCZ fluctuating little next 48 hrs but high starts weakening in 24-36 hrs as South Pacific low pressure moves east to near 45S/125W. Weakening high relaxes the pressure gradient & eases wind speeds slightly in all WARC FX zones in 24-30 hours. 

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 02/17/1200 GMT to 02/19/1200 GMT A mostly straightforward forecast because of the steady trade winds. Trades from Mar 7th-9th driven by pressure gradient between S Pacific high & equatorial low pressure associated with ITCZ. S Pacific high centered near 33S/103W on 7th moving to 35S/87W by 9th. ITCZ likely between 03N-05N from 77W-105W on 7th & slightly further S by 9th. Generally expect a SE'ly wind of 08-15 kts near the Galapagos. Wind speeds increase from N to S. Between 93W-105W expect 03-10 kts shifting ESE/SSE to the N of Equator, 10-18 kts from the SE/SSE between the Equator-03S, and 13-20 kts from the SE between 03S-08S. Greatest chance of shwrs/tsms near equator with lower risk the further south you travel.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 02/21/1200 GMT to 02/23/1200 GMT Light winds persist along the route from La Libertad to the Galapagos because of a weak pressure gradient between the S Pacific high & equatorial low pressure. Continue to expect 08-13 kts with occasional periods under 05 kts. There will be a gradual backing of the flow as you head west, from the SSW/S off the coast of mainland Ecuador to SE/ESE near the Galapagos.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 02/19/1200 GMT to 02/21/1200 GMT - The fleet continues to enjoy a mainly steady, albeit light, gradient wind from La Libertad to Galapagos. The pressure gradient between S Pacific high pressure and equatorial low pressure continues to drive winds in this region between 01N-04S. Generally expect 08-12 kts with occasional lulls. Winds remain highest to the south and lowest to the north. Expect a gradual backing of the flow from the S off the coast of Ecuador to SE/ESE near the Galapagos.

SHORT RANGE SYNOPSIS VALID 02/17/1200 GMT to 02/19/1200 GMT
Large-scale weather picture typical for this time of year during the next
few days and much of this leg. High pressure generally over Mexico & in S
Pacific with lower pressure along Equator associated with ITCZ & in N
Colombia with semi-permanent low center.