Hi all - I'm pleased to announce the winner of our 'Stanchions' challenge is Ian Chester from Ontario, Canada You'll recall the story of a week or so ago, when we were struggling to find exactly 4 additional stanchions to extend our life-lines to comply with ARC rules. The afternoon that this obstacle appeared, 4 'as new' 640mm stanchions (posts) appeared in the dumpster beside our berth, something that felt so unbelievable we did a quick check amongst ourselves before posting the story that no 'short-cuts' had been taken (which would clearly shorten the odds)!! We hypothesised that 4 such posts might be dumped once every five years, and speculated on the odds of us looking for them just when they were being dumped, in between collections! I've inserted Ian's response verbatim below, congratulations, an ARC shirt will be winging its way to you on our arrival!!
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"So here it is the odds are astronomical. 1 in 318,762,530,000. 318.7 trillion by the way will be the US budget in 2037.
The workings are multipliers concluded by the required stanchions take to account 5 years, less official holidays, 353*5 There 12 official government holidays....your proposal assumes daily garbage pickup, also many nation observe Sunday no work days.. if that if taken into account the odd will slew 14.2% thus the odd will reduce 1:45,410,910,023.8
Number of slips at Gran Canaria possible to throw out material. 1237
Number of garbage bins or locations to search for rubbish 4
Hours to search for garbage 2.5 hours /day 5 years. this takes into account conversation time. walking time and other distraction such as other shiny things 4562.5
number of possible manufacturer possible matches 32
Possible boat matches. 11
And of course your needed four.
I could not gain access to the slip reservations at the marina so the presumption is 100% full. one would have to look at the daily reservation rate to conclude the actual number of possible dumpage opportunity.
Thank you for this fun challenge.
Fair winds, and following seas
Ian Chester
Cheers, Alistair