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World ARC Weather - Leg 7

19 May 2010


World ARC Weather - Leg 7
Issued 19 May, 2010

Weather situation

The trade winds surge has moved just north of Suwarrow and is producing a band of showers with a couple of thunderstorms between 10S and 13S at the moment. These are likely to slowly shift towards the northwest during the next 24 hours. The other major weather systems in the South Pacific are well away from this leg with a low weakening near 20S 145W and another developing to the southwest of Tonga. This leaves the route from Bora Bora to Suwarrow and down to Nuie under a mid range trade wind regime at the current time. This are expected to remain relatively benign through the next 60 hours. A minor secondary of SE to ESE trade winds is expected to move across the fleet within the first 12-18 hours after departure. Then mid range trade winds should become established over the Bora Bora to Suwarrow route, providing improving sailing conditions after a slow start.

Weather

The decline in the trade winds should see only brief trade wind showers with long fine breaks for most yachts apart from near Suwarrow where showery weather is currently occurring. These showers should decline markedly during the next 24 hours. Then only well separated trade wind showers are likely across the route.

Winds (The forecasts should reflect the conditions through to Suwarrow). Note: All forecasts will be given according to the local time zone of the fleet.

Wednesday 19th May 
E to ESE trade winds 15/20 knots near Suwarrow with a couple of small patches to near 22 or 23 knots grading to 7/12 knots near Bora Bora. Near 14S the winds are generally in the 13/18 knot range. The trade winds should have moderate variations in its direction near Bora Bora but be fairly stable towards Suwarrow.

Thursday 20th May 
For the newly departed yachts the ESE trade winds should rise to 10/15 knots during the morning and 12/17 knots later in the afternoon and evening. For the yachts approaching Suwarrow the ESE winds are likely to oscillate through the 15/20 knot range, apart from when some showers move through when the wind speeds could reach 22 or 23 knots for a short period of time.

Friday 21st May 
The trade winds should shift east to ESE and average 15/20 knots in general. Near showers they should lift to 22 knots but some weaker patches below 15 knots are also likely, particularly towards the rear of the fleet. Strongest winds are most likely to be experienced by the most westward yachts. Any yachts departing Suwarrow and heading towards Nuie could find the winds more in the 17/22 knot range.


Prepared by: Bruce Buckley (Weather Australia)

Note: This forecast covers the expected weather between Bora Bora and Suwarrow for the entire fleet. An assumption is made that the fleet will stop at Suwarrow for at least 24 hours.



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