World ARC Weather - Leg 7

The ESE trade wind surge has moved past its peak, although the first part of the fleet is currently under its strongest sector. Over the next 12 hours the trade winds are expected to subside. However the extent of the trade winds is quite large and so it will dominate the weather for the next 2-3 days. With the decline in the strength of the surge the weather should also improve with increasing fine breaks between the trade wind showers.

Mid range trade winds are then expected through to Suwarrow which should produce good sailing conditions through to the atoll.

Weather

There are currently two lines of heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms oriented WSW to ENE ahead of the lead yachts of the fleet between the lead yacht and Suwarrow. These are expected to weaken with the thunderstorms dissipating during the next 12-18 hours. However passing trade wind showers are still expected to remain throughout the next 2-3 days with lengthy fine breaks between the showers. This should be a relatively stable phase of the trade wind regime. Increased shower activity is likely along the Suwarrow to Nuie section of this leg.

Winds (The forecasts should reflect the conditions through to Suwarrow). Note: All forecasts will be given according to the local time zone of the fleet.

Monday 17th 1600 local onwards

ESE winds 18/23 knots are expected to ease back to 15/20 knots tonight. However when thicker cloud lines approach or showers then some transient areas where the winds average 23-25 knots are likely to move through the fleet. As indicated in the briefing forecast, these should be short lived increases.

Tuesday 18th

Winds are expected to vary between the east and ESE with wind speeds mostly in the 15/20 knot range. Gradually the lead yachts in the fleet should move into winds averaging in the 17/22 knot range but the rear of the fleet could experience winds below 15 knots at times.

Wednesday 19th

E to ESE trade winds in the 17/22 knot range for the lead yachts although a weakening is expected from Bora Bora through to the tail end of the fleet where the lower end of the range could be 12/15 knots. Greater variability in the direction is expected towards the rear of the fleet. An increase in shower activity is also likely towards the front of the fleet in the vicinity of Suwarrow with generally fine weather towards the rear and near Bora Bora.